Labour’s big fear – that the voters are lying again

The big lie factor is beginning to worry Labour strategists who fear that the traditional reluctance of voters to admit they are going to vote Tory is underestimating David Cameron's support in the opinion polls.

Gordon Brown will boldly unveil Labour's election manifesto this morning with a distinctly retro look to the cover, showing a sunburst that reminds the Mole of Sunpat peanut butter and cinema logos of the 1930s.

But deep down Brown is worried that the voters have already made their minds up, regardless of Labour's manifesto sweeteners to freeze income tax for five years, offer fixed Parliaments, bring in electoral reform, or guarantee shorter waiting times for hospital.

A YouGov poll in the Sun today confirms what the other polls have been showing - that the Tory lead has slipped from around 10 per cent to six per cent. It gives the Conservatives 37 per cent, Labour 31 per cent and the Lib Dems 20 per cent.

So Brown should be feeling confident that Camo's campaign is faltering in spite of the Tories' success with the attack by big business celebrities on Labour's planned one per cent increase in National Insurance Contributions as a "tax on jobs" dominating the first week of the campaign.

In fact, Gordy is wringing his hands with anxiety at the possibility that the voters are - to put it politely - dissembling to the pollsters, and that Cameron's campaign based on that old election winner – it's time for a change – is going to send the Prime Minister off into the sunset. He remembers that the electorate lied about their intentions in 1992 when John Major trounced Neil Kinnock and that they could be lying again.

As if to confirm Brown's fears, the Independent on Sunday found that a majority of polling gurus also discount their own current polls and predict that, by May 6, Cameron will win a working majority partly because the Tories will out-perform their current showing in the marginals.  

These were their predictions: Andrew Hawkins, ComRes - Con majority of 32 seats; Andrew Cooper, Populus - Con majority of 10+; Martin Boon, ICM Research - Con majority of 20; Robert Salvoni, Harris Interactive - Con majority of 2-10.

Even Peter Kellner of YouGov, who is married to Baroness Ashton, Brown's controversial 'Foreign Secretary' in Brussels, predicts a Con majority of 20-30. "The Conservatives will have a small overall majority, and I think that the Lib Dems will do reasonably well," said Kellner. "The public don't want Gordon Brown but have shown no enthusiasm for David Cameron, who is heading for a narrow majority."

The Broon fingernails are likely to be chewed up by the end of the campaign - though not as badly as those of the people around him, if he loses. ·