It takes guts to keep the peace
The gutsiest thing for the West to do would be to stop sabre rattling at Russia
In the course of the last week the following people, by my count, have been described in the public prints as 'gutless': Gordon Brown for being soft on China; President Sarkozy, Chancellor Merkel and Barack Obama for being soft on Russia.
In all the above cases gutless was a wholly inappropriate adjective. For whereas gutlessness, or cowardice, may usually explain an individual's unwillingness to engage in physical confrontation, it scarcely ever explains an unwillingness to confront politically.
This is particularly true, of course, in international politics, where in almost every case it takes more guts to be pacific than warlike; more guts, too, to be a conscientious objector than to join up.
It is profoundly important to remember this, when there is a real danger of politicians on all sides, in an effort to appear gutsy, saying and doing things which might lead to a world war; even in present circumstances and this needs to be said to thermo-nuclear war.
Obama is accused of gutlessness for refusing to lambast Russia. In fact, of course, resisting the political advantages of lambasting Russia at this juncture is precisely the course which does require guts.
Nothing today is more important than keeping the peace. In recent years and months Nato, prodded by the United States, has been dangerously pushing its luck in Eastern Europe; almost challenging Russia to have the guts to react.
Russia has reacted and the gutsy thing for the West to do would be to stop sabre rattling, and sit down to talk. But what western statesmen will have the guts to risk being called an appeaser? ·
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Comments
The problem with sabre rattling is that you have to be willing & able to draw & use that sabre at some time. Russia is - the EU, NATO, USA ain't as far as Georgia/Caucasus is concerned - leaving Georgia to pay the price & giving other ex-USSR satelites cause to be worried - so either PUT UP or SHUT UP!
I do not see that Russia has any aspirations for wealth and power that are not shared by the USA, China, Britain or France.
But there are 2 standards of behavior being applied - the quick recognition of Kosovo coupled with a complete disregard for Ossetia and Abkhazia can only be perceived as an insult by Russians.
All these regions have undergone great demographic change since the breakup of the USSR - mostly through a violent process.
Kosovo was no exception to this, yet the West recognised it's independance in the face of Russian opposition.
Russia is still a very insular society and isolationist policy still has the ring of normality to the average Russian - sanctions and threats will only reduce the influence of Western liberalism and so relations can only worsen as a result.
I anticipate the arrival of a few well off economic refugees to Australia and a small boost to property prices as a result - I've got a nice one with an ocean view coming up in Byron Bay if anyone wants to get in before your european economy goes the way of 'Uncle Sams'?
BTW - great analysis and comment - I'm becoming a fan of yours PW.
I must say that old peregrine is, once again, dead on in his assessments. He is without doubt my favourite, and certainly your best commentator.