The timing of Brown’s Knesset speech is ominous

Gordon Brown's pledge to the Knesset that Britain "will continue to lead... in our determination to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapons programme," is ominous. It is ominous not so much for the content – there is very little Britain on its own could do about Iran's armaments programme – but because of the timing.

In Israel there is a growing feeling among the broad middle-ground of opinion, not just the hawks, that war with Iran is looming, and it could go nuclear very quickly.

The case was put with stunning clarity by Benny Morris, one of Israel's most eminent military historians, in the New York Times last week. "Israel will almost surely attack Iran's nuclear sites in the next four to seven months," wrote Prof Morris. The likely timing of an air offensive is November 5 to January 19 - between the election and inauguration of the new American president.

According to Morris, Israel's intelligence agencies are now agreed that Iran is working on a covert nuclear weapons programme, with Israel as the main target. Israel "will make the effort" to delay the nuclear programme, believing "that its very existence is at stake".

War between Israel and Iran could quickly go nuclear, say Morris and many other Israelis, because they believe Tehran is weeks away from deploying functioning tactical nuclear weaponry.

Professor Martin Van Creveld, another Israeli historian, is the only dissenter. In a televised interview, he says Israel can live with a nuclear Iran and that neither side has ever threatened to attack the other, except in retaliation. "Iran can actually do very little damage to Israel, but enormous damage to the Gulf and the world economy."

But Van Creveld has always been a lone voice. The big problem is the sense of military momentum now gathering in Israel – and Tehran may not have taken that on board in time. ·