Super Tuesday plunges parties into civil war

Super Tuesday was planned by both parties as the coronation of a candidate, followed by six months' furious fund-raising to finance the autumn race for the presidency. Such hopes were deliciously dashed on Tuesday as chaos descended on both parties.

John McCain won his Republican primary contests largely in states which will probably vote Democratic in November - New York, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey and California. In 'red states' likely to vote Republican, he had to split the vote with both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee and even when winning rarely rose above 40 per cent.

Over the last two weeks conservatives have paraded incredulity and disappointment that their party should have selected a traitor like McCain. Indeed, it's becoming clear that as the economy tilts into recession, prominent conservatives are coming to the conclusion that it might be no bad thing to have a Democrat win the White House this year and get stuck with recession and the mess in Iraq for four years.

Ann Coulter, the Saxon Klaxon, announced last week that if McCain got the Republican nomination she would not only "vote for" Hillary, she would campaign for her, because Clinton "is more conservative than he is".

Monday saw the most ominous message from all, from the mouth the Rev James Dobson, now the single most influential voice among evangelical Christians. He damned McCain conclusively. "I am deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem-cell research to kill nascent human beings, opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, has little regard for freedom of speech, organised the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters in judicial hearings, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language."

The dirigible of drivel himself, Rush Limbaugh, told his vast radio audience yesterday: "I would prefer not to have conservative Republicans in the Congress paralysed by having to support, out of party loyalty, a Republican president who is not conservative."

The Democratics are also fractured. Super Tuesday's split of delegates between Hillary and Obama left the nomination hanging until the Convention, when 'super delegates' will tilt the balance, in a blizzard of under-the-table pledges and bribes in the smoke-free caucus rooms.

The fissures were exposed in yesterday's votes. Hillary won eight states – Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Obama won 13 – Alaska, Alabama, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah, where polygamists presumably rallied for Obama in honour of his father. (New Mexico is still to declare.)

Hillary won the white south in Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma. She won the support of women, a commanding slice of the Hispanic vote and (in California) the Asian vote. Above all, she maintained a decisive grip on the white over-60s.

The youth vote, long predicted but only this year materialising at the polls, is Obama's. Courtesy of Bill Clinton's outbursts in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the black vote has gone to Obama on a scale that dwarfs Jesse Jackson's triumphs in '84 and '88. So if it comes to the nomination of Hillary by super delegates, there will be a lot of alienated and angry black and youthful voters.

Presidential elections these days are really decided by swing voters, classed by the pollsters as ‘independent’. Super Tuesday showed Obama as the Democratic candidate who is more capable of winning this vote. It was independents and first-time voters who gave the Illinois senator his victories in states like Idaho.

Brace yourself for a funding scandal. The Clintons have to find money fast. Obama is out-raising Hillary by $3 to $1 and can continue doing so, since Hillary's big donors have reached their legal limits whereas Obama's legions of small contributors can go on giving him money. ·