Crisis in Chad: Europe holds its breath

The weekend battle for the Chadian capital N'djamena threatens both a major humanitarian crisis and an escalating regional war. President Idriss Deby is hanging on for now, but the future of the country - and also the neighbouring Darfur region in Sudan - hangs in the balance.
 
A loose coalition of Chadian rebel groups attacked N'djamena on Saturday after a swift advance across the country from their bases in Darfur.

The alliance of rebel leaders, Timan Erdimi and Mahamat Nouri, was cobbled together and financed by Sudanese intelligence, which has been trying for two years to overthrow Deby (right), in retaliation for his support for rebels in Darfur, especially the Justice and Equality Movement.

Khartoum decided to strike now because a European Union civilian protection force (EUFOR) was due to arrive in the next few weeks. Sudan feared that the mostly French troops would in reality be a military bulwark to Deby. France supports Deby and it appears that troops from a separate long-standing military mission in Chad played a role in turning back the rebel advance at the weekend.
 
A rebel victory would make Khartoum the kingmaker in Chad. But there is no trust between Erdimi and Nouri and they could easily turn on one another, creating a re-run of the multi-sided factional battles that destroyed N'djamena in 1979-80. A militarily-confident Khartoum would be likely to attack rebel bases in Darfur and might also try to disperse refugee camps in eastern Chad, where the rebels recruit.
 
If Deby survives and regroups, another equally frightening scenario might unfold - an all-out war between Chad and Sudan. Deby's military style is to take the offensive and his retaliation would probably involve a cross-border strike deep into Darfur. Only France can restrain him.

Meanwhile, EUFOR is on hold; no European government wants to send its troops on a civilian protection mission into the middle of a firefight. ·