How real is al-Qaeda threat in Yemen?

There are growing suspicions that Yemeni President Ali Abudullah Saleh is playing on the west's fears of al-Qaeda in order to cling onto power. Following the takeover of the southern town of Zinjibar by Islamists at the weekend, one former cabinet member even claimed that Saleh had allowed the town to be taken in order to "frighten people that if he goes, Yemen will become Somalia".
 
On Sunday, between 200 and 300 armed men arrived in Zinjibar and, after a brief clash with government officials, quickly secured the town of 20,000. According to witnesses, the men were self-proclaimed mujahideen who had "liberated" Zinjibar "from the agents of the Americans" - in other words, Saleh's regime.
 
Most international reports have assumed al-Qaeda were responsible for the incident, mainly because Zinjibar is located in the highly volatile region of Ayban, known to be sympathetic to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).  Anwar al-Awlaki - the man behind the underpants bomber and a key player in AQAP - is believed to be based in Ayban.

And the incident appears to support Saleh’s warning at a press conference only last week, when he said: "Yemen, I hope, will not be a failed state or another Somalia”.

For the US, who last year pumped more than $300m of aid into the country, this remains a very real fear. The aid was meant partly to fund the fight again AQAP, which US officials deem "the most significant threat to the US homeland".

But the Common Forum, the Yemeni opposition coalition, accused Saleh of "criminal plotting" and said that he had "delivered Zinjibar to groups that he has formed and armed, to continue to utilise the spectre of al-Qaeda to frighten regional and international parties".

Whether the former defence minister Abdullah Ali Eliwa is right to suggest that Saleh allowed the town to be taken in order to "frighten people", there is definitely a case for saying that the al-Qaeda threat is being blown out of proportion, according to Iona Craig, a freelance journalist based in Yemen.

Craig told The First Post: "It's not even clear that they are al-Qaeda, even the locals don't know that. There are lots of different groups of Islamists in the area, as well as other people with grievances against Saleh. Saying it is al-Qaeda plays into his hands as he wants to scare the West into supporting him, so we have to be sceptical about that."

Lina Sinjab, a BBC correspondent in the Yemeni capital Sanaa, wrote last week: "There is a sense among many here that President Saleh is playing for time and aiming to stay in power."

Whether the Islamists who took Zinjibar are al-Qaeda or not, there is no doubt that they took the town – and took it easily. Because of clashes in Sanaa – where more than 100 people were killed last week – military forces have been pulled back to the capital, leaving regional towns unguarded and open to takeover by Islamists. ·