Tunisians vote for change, not religious extremism

WHAT'S HAPPENED?
WITH hours to go before the Tunisian election count is completed, 192 out of 217 seats in the National Constituent Assembly have been assigned at the time of posting, with the largest number, 78, going to the moderate Islamist party Ennahda. The secular party Congress for the Republic (CPR) has won 26 and the seven-month old surprise party Aridha Chaabia (Popular Petition) has taken 25.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
An Islamist victory looks likely, but it won't be an overwhelming one. 

Under the former Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Al, Ennahda was banned in 1989 and one of its co-founders, Hamadi Jebali, has since spent 16 years in jail - 10 of them in isolation - for his political activities.

Now 62, Jebali has been put forward by his party to be the country's next prime minister. He has been busy reassuring both Tunisians and the international community that despite the party's Islamist foundations, Ennahda will not impose conservative Islamist rulings such as banning bikinis or making Islamic banking compulsory.

But it was not religious considerations that led many Tunisians to vote for Ennahda.

Amin, a 24-year-old Tunisian mathematics student, told Qatara.de's Sarah Mersch that although he did not have much sympathy for the party, at least "they're all honest. They were all in prison until the revolution. The other parties are full of former members of the RCD."

As Issandr El Amrani said on the popular blog, Arabist, "The party was widely seen as the best-organised, the clearest in its convictions, and the most distant from Ben Ali".

According to the country's liberals, writes The New York Times' David Kirkpatrick, this is "a call for change, not necessarily an embrace of religious rule".

There is another lesson. The poor election showing of the PDP, regarded as the Islamists' main political rival, indicated the unpopularity of their strategy of attacking Ennahda's "hidden theocratic agenda".

Moncef Marzouki, a veteran human rights activist and leader of the CPR party, warned watching Arab countries to avoid "a civil war between secularists and Islamists".

WHAT NEXT?
Unable to win a majority, Ennahda will have to form a coalition with one of the popular secular parties. They have apparently begun talks with CPR and Ettakatol, but have said that they will not be considering Aridha Chaabia, following concerns over their legitimacy.

Arrangements are expected to be finalised within a month, after which the new Assembly will begin the task of drawing up the constitution and preparing the country for parliamentary/presidential elections. ·