Now Germans regret ever championing the euro

Deutsche mark euro

Nostalgia for the Deutsche Mark as Greece’s debt problem forces bail-out

BY Edward Helmore LAST UPDATED AT 12:51 ON Thu 11 Feb 2010

As European central bankers move closer to bailing out Greece to stem market panic, there are signs Germany may have deep regrets over the European experiment it long championed and must now take the lead in rescuing.

European officials have yet to outline rescue measures they plan to enact ahead of today's EU summit, but it is already clear that Germany will emerge as the prime underwriter of any loans or debt guarantees to stop the markets savaging weak, peripheral members - the so-called PIGS (Portugal, Italy and or Ireland, Greece and Spain.)

Germany, with assistance from France, will take the lead because the euro currency remains a Franco-German concept. And besides, says Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, “the Germans are the only ones with deep pockets. If it was just Greece, they could consider letting them go down the drain, but it threatens the entire euro zone.”

But there are warnings there could be stiff domestic German opposition to a Greek bail-out. Germans were unhappy to give up the Deutsche Mark, and now they will be unhappy to become an economic nanny to less robust members of the eurozone.

Germans opposed to a deal will argue that the PIGS violated numerous rules and regulations designed to prevent crises that could force more prosperous members to come to their aid.

“If the German government would just transfer money to Greece, people in Germany would feel their worst fears had come true,” Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, tells the New York Times.

Among solutions under discussion is whether Athens should be offered loan guarantees, loans to help meet a looming debt payment, or simply a pledge to buy Greek government bonds.

German apprehension over Greek guarantees is amplified by concern that it could effectively end up guaranteeing the entire PIGS debt - a "too-big-to-fail" hazard on an international scale.

According to the New York Times, German anxiety over a bail-out is exacerbated by German anxiety over its position as economic top dog. This week, Germany lost its title as world export champion to China and there is widespread concern that its population is not only shrinking but also ageing.

However, European leaders have little choice but to back Greece. It is already too late to turn back, says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “If you have encouraged the markets to believe that support is forthcoming and then it is not, we will see a backlash...” · 

Comments

What a good article. Let us push things a little fuhrer, sorry I mean further. The German populace will not be consulted or even informed of how the German central bank, via the European Central Bank, will bail out the Greeks. That is because they have been doing it for years now. Currently Greek govt. 10-year bonds are offered at 7%. So, if someone gives them EUR100 million, they get EUR7mil a year for the next ten years if they hold them that long, then they get their EUR100mil back at the end of ten years on redemption. Of course inflation will have murdered the original capital value, but let us ignore that for now. BUT!! The buyer of Greek bonds (it will be the other merchant banks not individuals mostly) won't just hold them - they will use their bonds as collateral for loans with the European Central Bank at a LOWER rate of interest. They then sit tight, receiving a higher rate from the Greeks than they pay to the ECB. So the taxpayers of the eurozone are already funding the Greeks and PIGS in general, and are going to go on doing so. This type of economic analysis is freely available on the Ludwig von Mises economics website, I don't spend my sad life reading the FT and blogging, honest.

Comments are now closed on this article