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Brazil set to oust Britain from Top 10 economies
One of the last in and first out of recession, Brazil will boom over next decade
Since 2005 Britain has dropped from fourth to seventh in the ranking of national economies. According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the country is set to drop out of the top ten by 2015 as Canada, India, Russia and China overtake. Much mournful commentary about the state of Britain, loss of prestige and influence is certain to follow.
But the economic impact may be less significant than the psychological and diplomatic impact, warned Douglas McWilliams, Chief Executive of the CEBR. "Even after the end of Empire, the world's political agenda continued to be set by people with broadly the same cultural framework as the British. But some of those who are increasingly setting the world agenda have a degree of post colonial resentment against the British."
McWilliams goes on to predict the British could find adapting to a world where economic, political and social decisions are made beyond the influence of British experience "traumatic". Others warn that as the UK economy shrinks it will be harder to sustain an investment-grade bond rating needed to attract the financing to grow.
But what seems most surprising is that anyone finds this surprising. The UK has, after all, extended its post-colonial relevance by riding the diplomatic and economic coat-tails of the US - a relationship that's offered British PMs the opportunity to walk the world stage, albeit as the junior partner. Now it may become harder to sustain the fantasy.
It's fairly clear which of Britain's superceding powers is going to be the most desirable place to live. Not Canada - too cold - but Brazil. One of the last in and first out of recession, Brazil is set to boom over the next decade as its consumer class grows from 50 to 80 million.
As the Economist points out, it has the world's largest freshwater supplies, the largest tropical forests, land so fertile that in some places farmers manage three harvests a year, and huge mineral and hydrocarbon wealth. Despite its history of setbacks, "the country is enjoying probably its best moment since a group of Portuguese sailors (looking for India) washed up on its shores in 1500."
A country that experienced inflation averaging 764 per cent in the early 1990s is now enjoying an unprecedented trifecta: democratic rule, economic growth and low inflation. It is self-sufficient in oil, and large new discoveries in 2007 are likely to make it a big oil exporter. By the middle of the century it is expected to become one of the world's six biggest economies. And, of course, it is Brazil - a place of fabulous optimism and colour. ·
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What a load of bollocks.
Where on earth is it getting it's data from?
Within 4 years it seriously expects Canada (GDP $1.5 Tr) to overtake the UK (GDP $2.2 Tr). Really. Likewise Russia (even smaller?). These projections are outlandish bordering on the laughable. Sadly no link to the report so that the data sets, and methodology can be looked at, just a weird loveletter to Brazil. A place where over 40% of children live in poverty.
We all know that education is affected by the situation of the economy. People are tend not to continue their studies because of financial problem. Those who don't study the past tend to repeat the dumb ideas from eras gone by avoid the good ideas from years past. For instance, take the following finance education lesson â?? the national rate of saving has dropped since the plethora of credit, and a new system of debt slavery for large purchases, once saved for monastically, were instead bought on credit, and now that that has collapsed, perhaps people will again realize that the best personal loans are from what you've worked to accumulate, rather than what you'll have to repay at usurious rates
Meanwhile, Gordon Brown, in his overwhelming, self-centred, enthusiastic search for power and popularity, despite ideal sailing conditions for over 10 years, has steered Britain onto the rocks. GB ruined by GB - a clear case of duty dereliction. Well done!
"But what seems most surprising is that anyone finds this surprising."
Given that Britain has pretty much lived off the spoils of its past conquests since the end of the second world war, should this be a surprise? They have let their industries die, and have focused on mostly making money by manipulating money (read: banking, etc.) and not true wealth creation. It is a sad state of affairs for a country that gave birth to the industrial revolution. No wonder the best British minds opt to exercise their creativity elsewhere while the average ones linger on that island and live from "holidays" to "holidays".
It is very distressing to see a once mighty power spiraling down into relative insignificance. It is sadder to see die hard 'loyalists' (like Mr. Bowman here I suppose) finding solace in the "inevitable fall" of the US from its "global leadership"! Even if it were true, shouldn't he and his cohorts be more concerned about the decline of their country?
Britain's unfortunate decline is further proof (in my mind) that the descendants of the Empire builders are proving to be middling at best. There is no substitute for hard and earnest work. Glibness and pontification (that Brits specialize in) can go only so far.....
Those Portuguese sailors (actually led by one Pedro Alvares Cabral) who discovered Brazil in 1500 were not "looking for India". They were indeed on their way to India but that sea-route had already been found in 1498 by Vasco da Gama. What happened was that, due to the winds, ships sailing down the Atlantic on their way to the Indian Ocean had to make that wide diversion that usually almost touched the Brazilian coast and this time actually did.
Oh dear. What a poor article. The UK economy will not shrink...it just won't grow as quickly as the New World economies. We are already seeing the world agenda being challenged by non-Anglo-Saxon thinking. Yes there will be a wailing and gnashing of teeth about Britain's role in the world but its bitter experience in Iraq and Afghanistan will ease the pain. And provide an opportunity for the non-political class to set a new agenda for the future. Defining what the UK stands for will be easier 60 years after the end of the empire. If you think the UK has got problems...just consider the US's inevitable fall from its position of global leadership. That will be truly painful. And dangerous.