Tories face thumping defeat by Labour in Mensch by-election

Oct 24, 2012
The Mole

Voters may not be crazy about Ed, but swing would give Labour an outright majority in a general election

GROWING unrest on the Tory backbenches over David Cameron's faltering leadership has not been helped by a poll for Lord Ashcroft, a major Tory donor, showing the Conservatives are heading for a thumping defeat in next month's Corby and East Northamptonshire by-election.

Ashcroft's poll puts Labour 22 points ahead in the contest - up 15 per cent since the general election when Tory chick lit author Louise Mensch won the seat with a wafer-thin majority.

The poll puts Labour's Andy Sawford in a seemingly unassailable lead with 54 per cent over the Tory candidate Christine Emmett on 32 per cent. UKIP are in third place on six per cent, ahead of the Lib Dems on five per cent.

Ashcroft, a former vice-chairman of the party, says this represents a swing from Tory to Labour of 13 per cent, which if repeated at a general election would see Ed Miliband form a government with an outright Labour majority.

"Labour's lead is now entrenched," says Ashcroft on the ConservativeHome website he bankrolls. "It means a comfortable victory for the Opposition and would mean a significant overall majority if repeated at a general election."
Ashcroft added a rider, however. "It will be troubling for Labour that even though more than half of Corby voters plan to vote for [Labour] only a third would rather see Ed Miliband in No 10."

That won't trouble Miliband's team too much: 'Red Ed' is beginning to grow into the job, and has two years to convince the electorate he has what it takes to run the country.
The feeding frenzy over the BBC and the Jimmy Savile sex scandal has taken the heat off Cameron and the Tories' record of incompetence, but that won't last for long.

Today Cameron has to face off again against Miliband at Prime Minister's Questions, having cocked up his announcement last week of support for consumers on their energy bills, and issued a confusing message on the Tories' 'tough but intelligent' approach to crime and punishment.
The Mole has spoken to one former Tory minister noted for his 'soundness' on the economy who said: "Cameron has got to go. The real trouble is that he doesn't seem to care about the party. Margaret Thatcher made sure she was close to her party, until the very end. Cameron has lost it."
Thursday is likely to bring some good economic news for the embattled Chancellor, George Osborne. Official figures are likely to show that Britain has moved out of its double dip recession. But it will take more than one set of mildly hopeful figures to convince the voters in Corby before they go to the polls on 15 November.
The killer finding in Ashcroft's poll is that a majority of the voters there - 56 per cent - think that, on the economy, things can only get worse in the next four years, and Labour would do better than the Tories in creating growth and jobs.

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The most alarming stat for Tories from Ashcroft's research was that the Lib Dem vote has just evaporated, going straight to Labour. If this plays out across all Tory-Labour marginals, it's incredibly bad news for the Cameron.

This is what happens when you decide to charge VAT on cooked food instead of charging it on tabloids and celebrity mags. Any decent person would have done the latter, but the tories and even labour won't dare to do it. Cutting top rate of tax was also a very stupid decision. Cameron has no chance now of winning the next general election.

Delighted that the Lib Dem vote has evaporated - they and the Labour Party deserve one another. Disappointed about UKIP on 6% - fresh blood always welcome!

Cameron has let himself down, as well as his party; more seriously, he has let the country down by allowing Labour a very real chance of a return to power.

Mole. I have it on quite good authority that the orgignal proposal to cull the badgers made complete economic sense. It was just the typist at No. 10 who did not want to upset the PM so she changed the "nk" to "dg" which set the blunder in motion