16 days left: four new polls give little hope to Tories
Polling average still has parties neck-and-neck which is unlikely to keep Cameron in Downing Street
Four new polls have produced two Tory leads and two Labour leads. They leave the parties tied in the polling average - which remains the best guide to what is likely to happen on 7 May.
The best showing for the Tories comes with their four-point lead in the Ashcroft national poll: Con 34 (up 1), Lab 30 (down 3), Lib Dems 10 (up 1), Ukip 13 (unchanged), Greens 4 (down 2).
A week ago, ICM was giving the Tories a six-point lead: that’s now evaporated, though they remain ahead: Con 34 (down 5), Lab 32 (down 1), Lib Dems 10 (up 2), Ukip 11 (up 4), Greens 5 (u/c).
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Populus shows Labour moving to a two-point lead thanks to a slight fall in Tory support: Lab 34 (u/c), Con 32 (down 1), Lib Dems 9 (u/c), Ukip 15 (up 1), Greens 4 (u/c
YouGov for The Sun shows a one-point Labour lead: Con 34 (u/c), Lab 35 (u/c), Lib Dems 7 (down 1), Ukip 13 (u/c), Greens 5 (u/c).
Remember, neck-and-neck is nowhere good enough if David Cameron wants to be certain of remaining in Downing Street. That’s because he’s reliant on the Lib Dems, who are expected to lose heavily on 7 May, leaking seats pretty equally to the Tories, Labour and – north of the border – to the SNP.
He needs to be between eight and 11 points ahead of Labour to be sure of a Commons majority.
Ashcroft completes the overnight picture with two Scottish constituency polls which illustrate that the SNP pose a threat to the Lib Dems as well as to Labour. The SNP are ahead by 13 per cent in Edinburgh North and Leith and three per cent in Edinburgh South. Both were Labour vs Lib Dem fights in 2010.
Any Lib Dem losses in Scotland further diminish Cameron’s hopes of renewing the coalition with Nick Clegg post 7 May.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Magazine interactive crossword - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine solutions - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine printables - April 26, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - April 26, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Is David Cameron overshadowing Rishi Sunak?
Talking Point Current PM faces 'thorny dilemma' as predecessor enjoys return to world stage
By The Week UK Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Can Cameron put the Falklands sovereignty dispute to bed?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary says issue 'not up for discussion' ahead of visit amid renewed push from Argentina
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will America recognize a Palestinian state?
Today's Big Question Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu opposes the move. Some see it as the only route to peace.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Fasting to burger buffets: the weird and wonderful diets of politicians
Why Everyone's Talking About Rishi Sunak reportedly starts his week with a 36-hour fast
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published