Britain's return to two-party politics
Whatever happens on Thursday, one thing is certain - this election will remembered for the polarisation of UK politics
While polls for tomorrow's general election vary wildly, they all suggest the UK's two main political parties are on course to win 80 per cent of votes between them, more than in any other election in 40 years.
"The uptick reverses a trend which has lasted for decades," says Buzzfeed. The combined vote share of the country's two biggest parties fell from more than 90 per cent in the 1950s to around 65 per cent in recent elections.
Why has this happened?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"Mostly this is because the smaller parties are becoming less popular," Steve Fisher, associate professor of political sociology at Oxford University, told Buzzfeed.
Ukip won 12.5 per cent of the vote at the 2015 general election, but its support has since collapsed and it is struggling to articulate a purpose after the EU referendum, particularly with Theresa May taking a hard line on Brexit.
In addition, the anticipated Lib Dem surge has failed to materialise. "Part of this has been attributed to the acceptance by many Remain voters that Brexit is going to happen," says the Financial Times, while polling also suggests the party is still suffering the effects of entering into a coalition with the Tories in 2010.
The Greens "look largely irrelevant since they no longer outflank Labour on the Left while their key policies, such as rail nationalisation, have been plundered by their rival", says CapX. A lack of charismatic leadership in the Lib Dems and Ukip and a first-past-the post electoral system that fails to translate popular support into seats have also contributed to the dwindling support for smaller parties, it adds.
But, says Molly Kiniry in the Daily Telegraph, this is only half the story. The collapse of Ukip has been good for May, she says, "but the rise of the Tories has been matched by the rise of a more united Left – cleaving the country in two along ideological lines".
The Prime Minister has positioned herself in direct opposition to Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, "encouraging an us-versus-them mentality" reminiscent of a US presidential campaign while "trying to squeeze different constituency groups into two parties, with the result that the moderate-minded participants – like Labour's Blairites – lose out".
Earlier elections were fought for control of the centre ground, but the increasingly polarised positions of Labour and the Conservatives have, says Buzzfeed, "allowed both parties to pick up the votes they'd lost on their own fringes".
Labour is once again "the home of angry protest votes once lost to the Greens while the Tories soak back up millions of votes taken from them by Ukip", says CapX.
The party has also benefited from the weak polling numbers of the left-of-centre fringe parties "as some voters are deciding the only way to minimise the size of May's majority is a vote for Labour", says Buzzfeed.
Is the shift back permanent?
Labour and the Conservatives should not assume that this year's resurgence marks the beginning of a new era of two-party dominance, Professor Thom Brooks of the University of Durham told the Financial Times.
"If a strong personality appears, like Emmanuel Macron, who is rooted in a big political party, standing above it, they could attract crowds," he said. "Society is very sceptical and cynical about mainstream parties, people are looking for some change. There is room on the political stage for a Macron-style victory."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
A Taste of Honey: 'wonderful' revival remains 'vital and relevant'
The Week Recommends The 'period-perfect' production features a 'universally excellent cast'
By The Week UK Published
-
Bormio: 'a great Alpine getaway'
The Week Recommends From snowy slopes and hot-spring spas, to high-end food and wine, this Italian town has something to offer everyone
By Asya Likhtman Published
-
Crossword: March 28, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Farewell to Theresa May: a PM consumed by Brexit
Talking Point Maidenhead MP standing down at next general election
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Stormont power-sharing in sight: 'good news' for Northern Ireland?
Talking Point Unionists vote to end two-year boycott after agreeing legislative package to address post-Brexit trading arrangements
By The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published