Message to Bashar Assad: it’s the economy stupid

As the Syrian regime continues to crack down on protesters in the northern port city of Latakia, an expert has warned The First Post that the deteriorating economic situation could prove the last straw for the struggling regime.

Under seige for the fourth day running, Latakia is said to be surrounded by tanks and military vehicles, preventing anything, or anyone, from getting in or out.

Residents say that snipers are shooting those who venture into the streets, and there have also been numerous reports of navy ships shelling the city over the last few days, which the government has dismissed as "routine exercises".

According to activists, at least 33 people have been killed in the city since Saturday, in what is being seen as an increasingly desperate attempt by president Bashar al-Assad to crush ever-snowballing pro-democracy protests.

Normally a busy hub of commercial activity, Latakia - the country's main port - is the latest in a series of economically important cities, such as Hama, Homs and Deir al-Zour, to fall victim to political unrest.

"The regime's prime concern at the moment is to hold on to power," Julien Barnes-Dacey, Control Risks's head of the Middle East and North Africa desk told the The First Post. "Economic and social dimensions are very much secondary to that, even though commercial life across the country has slowed considerably."

But Barnes-Dacey believes this is a mistake. "The economy is crucial to the regime's standing. Once that plummets and they lose the support of the merchant class, staying in power becomes more tricky."

One of the most shocking attacks was on the Palestinian refugee camp in the al-Jamal region of the city. At least 5,000 refugees remain unaccounted government troops opened fire on them on Monday.

"We are calling for access to the camp to find out what is going on," said UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness. "There were 10,000 refugees in the camp and we need to find out what is happening to them."

But for Syria, which prides itself on standing up for Palestinian rights, the incident may prove especially damaging to its reputation among its Arabic neighbours.

"One of the regime's claims to legitimacy is that it is a pillar of resistance, and advocates human rights against what it presents as a Western US-Israeli hegemony," Jane Kinninmont, senior research fellow on the Middle East at Chatham House, told The First Post. "It now becomes increasingly difficult for the regime to maintain its appeal." ·