Syrian army can only fight for six months amid economic collapse

THE SON of a former Syrian president has said Bashar al-Assad’s regime is slowly disintegrating thanks to international sanctions and that the military crackdown on anti-government protesters can only last another six months.

London-based Faisal al-Qudsi is one of the Syrian diaspora’s leading businessmen. Speaking to the BBC’s Weekend World Today, he said sanctions had crippled tourism, which accounts for 15 per cent of Syrian GDP, and oil exports, which account for 30 per cent of GDP.

"Effectively the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank have come down from $22bn to about $10bn and it is dwindling very rapidly," Qudsi said.

Iran is sending large amounts of cash, but it is not enough.

“The apparatus of government is slowly disintegrating,” says Qudsi. “It's almost non-existent in places like Homs, Idlib, Deraa. Courts are not there. Police are not interested in any sort of crime and it is affecting the government very, very badly."

Asked how long the Assad regime could survive under such pressure, Qudsi said: “I give a maximum of six months for the military phase to end… They will have to sit and talk or at least they have to stop killing. And the minute they stop killing, more millions of people will be on the streets. So they are in a Catch 22."

Qudsi’s assessment of the situation followed a day of violence in a smart neighbourhood of Damascus less than three miles away from Assad’s presidential palace.

The New York Times reports that “hundreds and hundreds” of anti-government activists marched through the district of Mezzeh yesterday, past the Iranian embassy, in one of the biggest protests so far in the capital. “This is the embassy of the armed gangs,” shouted one man – in a reference to the accusation levelled at protesters by Assad. Many Syrians believe Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are helping government forces put down the protests.

Security forces attempted to disperse yesterday’s protest with tear gas and sonic grenades, arresting dozens of people. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said one protester had been shot dead.

Elsewhere in Syria, the violent crackdown on protests continues. Armed forces continue to pour into Homs, a focal point for anti-government discontent, and shelling of the city’s district of Baba Amr resumed today. ·