Nigeria looks to Goodluck Jonathan as Yar’Adua dies

The President of Nigeria, Umaru Yar'Adua, has died aged 58, bringing to an end months of uncertainty and leaving his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, in charge of a country beset by internal conflicts.

President Yar'Adua's death was announced on Nigerian TV early this morning. "The president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, died a few hours ago at the presidential villa," said an announcer. "Security aides notified the national security adviser, General Anou Bissou, who immediately called the acting president. The late president has been ill for some time."

Yar'Adua (pictured above left with Jonathan in 2007) had returned to his villa after spending several months in a Saudi Arabian hospital where he was treated for acute pericarditis, a heart condition.

His death will end the controversy surrounding his wife, Turai Yar'Adua. In contrast to her late husband ­ who was seen as quiet, capable and most importantly, honest, Turai is a controversial figure, who has been accused by the Nobel-winning Nigerian author Wole Soyinka of  "spousal abuse" and using her husband's incapacity for her own corrupt ends, sharing power with a group of "absolute brigands".

Vice president Goodluck Jonathan, who was sworn in as acting president last February, will take over from Yar'Adua and must now choose his own vice president.

Jonathan's image is as a low-profile administrator rather than a leader, who was only allowed to become acting president because he did not pose a threat to vested interests.

Despite this, his elevation is not uncontroversial. Nigeria is a fractious union of Muslims to the north and Christians to the south. Jonathan is a Christian southerner, while Yar'Adua was a Muslim. There is an unwritten rule that the presidency should rotate between the two religions ­ and Jonathan could be seen to be cutting in during the Muslims' turn to rule.

Among Jonathan's most pressing concerns will be the deadly inter-communal violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria's central region, which culminated in a massacre of 500 Christians in March by their Muslim neighbours in the city of Jos in the central state of Plateau. Wole Soyinka even suggested the violence could lead to the country splitting in two.

The other area of conflict is in the Niger Delta, where militants from Jonathan's own Ijaw ethnic group and the Ogoni people have been conducting a sometimes peaceful, sometimes violent campaign against oil companies and the government to highlight the iniquities brought about by oil production in the region.

It remains to be seen whether Jonathan will stand in elections due in
2011 ­ and how this break in the alternation between Muslim and Christian premiers will go down with the public.

It is assumed he will not stand ­ but he has had success in negotiations with Ijaw militants in the Niger Delta, many of whom have laid down their arms. If he can now reduce tension in the restive central states, he may seek to break the mould and stand for election.

After all, democratic traditions in Nigeria are young - ­ it is only 11 years since Olusegun Obasanjo took over from the military with his directly elected government. ·