Roman Polanski’s escape route is a ski-lift to France

Switzerland's justice minister has said he is unlikely to appeal the granting of bail to Roman Polanski, who has been fighting his extradition to the United States on underage sex charges ever since he was picked up at Zurich airport by the Swiss authorities on September 26.

The news comes despite expressions of surprise from lawyers who point to the film director's previous form. Polanski fled Los Angeles for France in 1978, fearing a Californian judge would not honour the terms of his plea bargain following his admission of unlawful sexual intercourse with 13-year-old Samantha Geimer.

Polanski might have an hour before police responded to an alert from his tag

So, given his record of flight, what are the 76-year-old's chances should he decide to make a break for the border with France, whose president has expressed support for him and which is under no obligation to extradite its citizens to the United States?

Polanski has offered his Paris apartment to meet the bail of £2.7m granted this week. Under the terms of the bail offer, he is to surrender his passport and be placed under house arrest in his chalet in the luxury ski resort of Gstaad, tantalisingly close to the French border. Unfortunately for the director, he will be electronically tagged; if he attempts to leave his home, an alarm will alert police.

But how effective is electronic tagging? A three-year trial of the technology in Switzerland which ended in 2002 found that 16,000 alarms were set off - that's 14 per day. Given the frequency of these alerts, it is questionable exactly how quickly police would be likely to respond to one being tripped in Gstaad.

Perhaps Polanski would have an hour before Swiss police responded to an alert from his electronic tag?  Along mountain roads, the 44-mile journey to Chatel across the French border would take approximately 1hr 20mins. But passport checks at the border - Switzerland is not an EU member - mean that Polanski would have to take his chances hiding in the boot of a car, which would highly risky both for the director and his accomplice.

But there are other, more surreptitious options. Hot-air ballooning is a popular winter activity in the Alps, but it is only safe to take off in wind speeds of less than 10mph - making the trip to France at least four hours.

While it would certainly catch the imagination of the TV-viewing public and put OJ Simpson's famous car chase from police along a highway to shame, the four-hour journey to France might be a little too leisurely for a wanted man. A helicopter would be a more successful option - if he could persuade a pilot to risk jail for him.

There are two ways of crossing the border without the need of an accomplice: by water and on foot (or skis). Villeneuve, a town on the Swiss side of Lake Geneva, is less than an hour's drive from Gstaad. From there, the five miles to Saint Gingolph, on the French border is well within rowing, or pedalo, distance.

But this is winter, and a man who owns a chalet in one of Switzerland's most desirable resorts would doubtless prefer to let his skis do the work.

Les Crosets is a Swiss skiing village just over an hour's drive from Gstaad. Crucially, it is part of the Portes du Soleil ski zone - a series of lifts and runs linking 12 ski resorts on either side of the French-Swiss border, just north of Mont Blanc.

In other words, once you've taken the lift up from Les Crosets, a reasonable skier is only a matter of minutes away from crossing the border to the purpose-built French resort of Avoriaz. True, any skier who criss-crosses the border in this region is supposed to carry their passport at all times. But it is rare to be asked to show it.

The Portes du Soleil ski season opens on December 12 - not long to wait. What is more, we know Polanksi has been there before - it's where he was photographed (above) in 1990, attending the now sadly defunct Avoriaz Fantastic Film Festival.

But if the thought of losing his Paris apartment and his Swiss chalet is too much for Roman Polanski - the chalet alone, he says, represents half of his personal wealth - there may at least be an upside for his family if he decides to stay put and face extradition.

The Swiss trial of electronic tagging found that partners of those monitored said they noticed a positive effect on personal relationships and family life, including more time together, and help with the household and children. ·