MI5 terror warning comes with budget cuts in mind

The head of MI5 warned yesterday that it was "only a matter of time" before a terrorist atrocity is committed in Britain by UK citizens who have travelled to Somalia for training in camps run by al-Shabaab, the Islamist extremist group affiliated with al-Qaeda.

In a speech to the Worshipful Company of Security Professionals in the City, Jonathan Evans also raised the threat of increased attacks by dissident republicans in Northern Ireland and made the point that the 2012 London Olympics now posed a major security challenge.

And he warned that it was wrong-headed to share the American view that terrorism was 100 per cent preventable. This, he said, was "nonsensical".

Speeches by serving director-generals of MI5 are as rare as rocking horse manure and, like a difficult schoolboy Latin text, are best understood with the aid of an introduction and a few notes...
    
Introduction. Never take anything at face value when dealing with intelligence types. There are always multiple hidden agendas swirling beneath. It's partly because they just cannot help it.

The 'psychological manipulation' which lies at the heart of intelligence work tends to cross-infect the rest of your activities. A lifetime sniffing out weaknesses and vulnerabilities in individuals so that they can be persuaded/seduced/blackmailed into providing intelligence makes you think you can do it to anyone.

A nod and a wink here, a leak and a warning there and the public - and all the new ministers, even the Lib Dems - will soon be on side.

Note One. Evans was right to highlight the threat from Somalia.
It is a wild, mountainous and lawless land, dominated by extremists with a penchant for piracy, smuggling and extreme ideological violence - ­ a sort of South Armagh on the Indian Ocean.

A dramatic increase in Somali immigrants to the UK (the number has doubled - some say quadrupled - since the 40,000-plus recorded in the 2001 Census) has made it much more difficult to keep track of any malcontents.
      
Note Two. The speech is a public statement to the Home Secretary, Theresa May, about how important a director-general is should anything nasty happen.

Evans's description of the American idea that "terrorism was 100 per cent preventable" as "nonsensical" gives her and the government a kind of cover that only he can provide.

Note Three. Like all the other department heads, Evans is also trying to protect his budget. The Single Intelligence Account which pays for all three intelligence services has not been ring-fenced.

George Osborne is said to be keen on a 10 per cent cut. Spooks, like everyone else in the public sector, got used to the Labour years of plenty.
 
Note Four. New prime ministers receive intelligence briefings in their first 24 hours in Downing Street. David Cameron is rumoured to have been less impressed with MI5 than MI6.

This is not unusual. MI6 has more glamour and, because of the Foreign Office lifestyle - ­ school fees paid, exotic foreign postings, etc - it tends to attract a better class of spook.

Given that it was Evans himself who delivered much of his service's briefing he is probably feeling a little unloved. Nothing better than a blood-curdling speech to remind the politicians what good chaps he and his service really are. ·