Can Sarkozy face down the unions on Black Tuesday?

Few people enjoy returning to the office after their summer break, but for French president Nicolas Sarkozy the prospect must have been particularly cheerless.

Sarkozy took a couple of weeks off in August to spend time with his wife Carla Bruni on the Cote d'Azur, but now he's back at his desk ready, so he says, to confront his many enemies.

One of France's leading political commentators, Pascal Perrineau, has described the autumn as a "key moment" for Sarkozy, "because it is now that everything falls into place for 2012".

It starts today, 'Black Tuesday', as the French press have dubbed September 7, the day when over two million people are expected to march through the streets voicing their displeasure at the government's plan to reform the country's pension system.

In addition, air, rail and metro services are severely disrupted, secondary schools and colleges are closed and many of the country's radio and television stations have shut down for 24 hours.

The strikes have been organised by the powerful French trade unions, all of whom are appalled at the prospect of the retirement age rising from 60 to 62 by 2018.

"Depending on how many come out on Tuesday, the government will advance or not advance this reform," acknowledged Francois Chereque, leader of the CFDT, one of the five major confederations of French trade unions.

He added: "The only chance today, since dialogue will not allow us to do it, to change the reform, to make it more fair, is to be numerous in the street... it's a crucial moment."

Yet for the moment Sarkozy is standing strong, refusing to back down on reform plans. As one pro-government newspaper explained on Monday, the new proposed retirement age of 62 would still be below the average of 64 for the world's other major industrialised democracies, but in raising it two years the government would save an estimated €70bn by 2030.

And the president will be further emboldened by a poll published by the French Institute of Public Opinion on Sunday that showed 53 percent of people surveyed view the pension reform plans as "acceptable" in light of the country's eight per cent public deficit (the EU's deficit limit is set at 3 per cent).

Ironically, support for the president on his pension reforms is particularly strong among the young, the demographic group that has been most outraged by his decision last month to start expelling France's Roma population.

Approximately 80,000 people took part in a series of marches on Saturday to protest against the policy, likened by some to the deportation of French Jews to concentration camps during the Second World War.

At one demonstration in Paris at the weekend, the city's mayor Bernard Delanoe told the crowd he was there to protest against Sarkozy's "racism and xenophobia".

Though many older French people support Sarkozy's hard line on the Roma, his personal popularity has sunk to its lowest level since he took office in 2007 with a poll in best-selling tabloid Le Parisien giving him a 32 per cent approval rating.

His prime minister, Francois Fillon, fares little better on 38 per cent and many believe that to placate the trade unions Sarkozy will give them his head. On Sunday night the president's chief of staff, Claude Gueant, appeared on television to give Fillon the dreaded vote of confidence, usually an indication that the guillotine is being sharpened.

Gueant also insisted that the president would not be deterred in his stance however many people take to the streets, because "the fundamentals of the reform can't change... this reform is necessary".

But if Sarkozy fails to push through his reforms, a draft of which is being presented to parliament this afternoon, it could soon be his head on the chopping block. ·