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Labour aides celebrate poll showing hung parliament
The Mole: If only Brown would stand down, Labour might win the coming general election
The Mole hears that Downing Street aides celebrated on Saturday night like the cast of The Thick of It when they heard that an Ipsos MORI opinion poll in the Observer had cut David Cameron's Tory lead over Gordon Brown's Labour party to six points, the narrowest margin for over a year. They are convinced that it shows their strategy for building up Brown as the Experienced Pilot guiding Britain through the economic storm is beginning to pay off.
The poll put the Tories on 37 per cent, Labour on 31 per cent and the Lib Dems trailing on 17. The Tory lead would not be enough to give Cameron an overall majority, and boosted the hopes of the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg that despite the two-party squeeze, he could end up holding the power in the first hung Parliament since 1974.
Bob Worcester, the founder of MORI, said: "This poll will jolt the electorate into the reality of British politics in the run-up to the election. Whether or not there has been a blip among the electorate caused by short-term events such as Labour's surprise win in Glasgow North East, it will not be easy for the Tories to gain the 117 seats they need for an overall majority, never mind the 140 they require for a working majority."
The poll will be seen as important for a number of reasons, not least because Clegg immediately made it clear on the Andrew Marr Show that he would not prop up a minority Brown government if Cameron wins more seats than Labour at the next election.
"Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people, it seems to me obvious in a democracy they have the first right to seek to try and govern, either on their own or with others," said Clegg. That will dismay many Lib Dems who don't want Clegg to climb into bed with Cameron under any circumstances.
Meanwhile, Cameron said a hung parliament would be better for Britain than a Labour victory at the next general election. The Tory leader dismissed a warning from one of his senior colleagues, Ken Clarke, that it would be "a disaster" if the election produced no clear victor at a time of economic crisis. "I think frankly anything is better than another five years of this Labour government,” Camo said on the AM show.
Deep inside the Brown bunker, the poll fuelled growing confidence that the public are starting to warm to the message that Brown’s reflation of the economy is bearing fruit, and the threat of cuts in public spending by Cameron would put it at risk.
Brown is expected to use a speech to the CBI today to reinforce the message that he can lead Britain out of recession, announcing he is hosting an international investment conference in London early next year as part of efforts to attract new money into Britain.
Ultra-loyal Brownite Cabinet minister Yvette Cooper (Mrs Ed Balls) said: "We are seeing the economy strengthening now and I think people do have a sense of real unease that we should risk that recovery with the Conservatives."
The only problem with the euphoria in Brown HQ is that it ignores the painful truth that was buried away on page 8 of the Observer: the public still can't stand Gordon Brown and his low personal rating could be dragging the party down. Only 34 per cent of people are satisfied with his performance, against 59 per cent who are dissatisfied. David Cameron had approval ratings of 48 per cent, with 35 per cent against.
Grumbling voices inside the Labour party yesterday saw the poll quite differently from the Brown camp. Instead of being a vote of confidence in his leadership, it suggests that if only Brown would step down and allow someone else - either of the Miliband brothers or even Ed Balls - to fight for the crown, Labour would have a real chance of beating Cameron.
"Those who have been round a bit don't believe the spin that the Brown camp are putting on this poll," one disgruntled Labour MP told the Mole. "Because if there is a choice between Gordon and Not Gordon, people will go for Not Gordon. We have always believed it is going to be a close-run thing but if you're sensible about this, if you really want to win, you have to persuade Gordon to step down and let us run with a new leader."
The danger is that the poll will reinforce Brown's determination to hang on to the crown until it is torn from him. ·
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The smaller parties are going to rule next year.
Ordinary people are fed up with LibLabCons are their attempts to destroy our country,we want it back please.
A hung parliament would probably mean a second election in the autumn, as in 1974. That said, a coalition government would not necessarily be a bad thing. It's absurd to suppose that coalitions can't govern effectively. There were coalitions (Whigs and Peelites) in the mid-nineteenth century, and coalitions in both World Wars in the twentieth.
Jerome Peter
Enjoyed your post very much ,very perseptive.I wonder if you have heard of "Common Purpose"? Worth a google
The latest ARS poll (no thats not a joke) gives a lead of 17%.
Ergo Sum all speculations are off!
I think Ken Clarke's right - it could be a disaster to have a hung Parliament. Voters really need to make their minds up about which of the available options they are going to vote for. Cameron is a much more plausible front man than Brown, but unfortunately handicapped by the useless Shadow Chancellor George Osborne. If Cameron had the courage to sack him and put Ken Clarke in his place, the Conservatives would start climbing the polls again. But that would show Cameron up as a lightweight so it's not going to happen, is it?
There is no question of doubt in my mind that Labour are trying to destroy Great Britain as a country and the British as a people. They have engineered the dismantling of our economy and the stripping of our assets in the most calculating way. Labour have caused as much social ruination to what used to be a cohesive society, by creating as many rifts and divisions as possible. Whether based on gender, race, sexuality, colour or creed, this party of Frankfurt School disciples have done their absolute damndest to destroy the British as a race. Still this Government refuses to ratify International Labour Organisation Convention 169, which demands that Governments the world over respect the land rights of all indigenous peoples. They refuse to ratify it on the specific grounds that there are no people indigenous to Great Britain. So there you have it. The English don't exist. The Welsh don't exist and neither do the Scottish. Is it even worth mentioning the Irish as far as feminist/communist Labour are concerned? I doubt it.
This poll is certainly what Labour desperately needed, to stop its people giving up and get some money in. It is very convenient.
The danger is the country will either become bankrupt very soon or die slowly over decades likes Japan is doing. Anything less than a Conservative majority make one of these two outcome almost inevitable. And that would be the bad news.
Remember there are some on the left who want this type of disaster to justify the reordering of society and its enslavement to socialism.
It's not a "danger" that the madman Brown will hang on to his "crown": it's a dead cert, and says all that needs to be said about him, and moreover about his lovely "colleagues" in his Party. As always, the UK and its people come LAST in their frenetic deluded plotting.