Afghan elections: behind the fraud and diplomacy

Following huge pressure from the West, Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, has agreed to take part in a run-off election against the man who came second in August's fraudulent presidential elections, Dr Abdullah Abdullah. The second round will take place on November 7 - but there are concerns that it will be impossible to organise a fair run-off.

What was wrong with the August elections?On August 20, Afghanistan held its second presidential election since the 2001 fall of the Taliban. Preliminary results gave Hamid Karzai 54.6 per cent - above the 50 per cent threshold required to claim outright victory. Abdullah won 27.8 per cent. However, these figures were never confirmed because of an investigation into widespread ballot-stuffing and intimidation.

How bad was the electoral fraud?The internationally backed Electoral Complaints Commission was handed the task of ruling on irregularities in the August elections after more than 2,000 complaints of fraud were lodged. In the end, the results from 210 polling stations were discounted completely and 1.3 million votes disqualified - nearly a quarter of the votes cast. This brought Karzai's total share down to 49.67 - just short of the 50 per cent threshold required to avoid a run-off with second-placed Abdullah.

Karzai was reportedly considering rejecting the findings of the ECC until pressure from the West brought him into line.

Did Karzai have any justification for ignoring the ECC? There is controversy over the way the ECC arrived at the revised polling totals. Rather than recount the votes from all suspect polling stations, inspectors recounted 10 per cent of them and extrapolated a 'coefficient of fraud' from this sample.

The ECC says it will publish the margin of error from this statistical calculation today - a very important detail, since Karzai is just 0.33 per cent short of outright victory. The incumbent could justifiably claim the election has been stolen from him should the margin of error be higher than this.

Why did Karzai agree to a run-off?Karzai is believed to have been pressured into accepting a run-off after he rejected efforts to force him to enter government with Abdullah. Western countries also threatened to withdraw their support. The United States had already said it could not commit extra troops to Afghanistan until the matter was resolved satisfactorily.

Who is Dr Abdullah Abdullah?A 41-year-old ophthalmologist who fought for the mujahideen against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. He went on to become the foreign minister of the Northern Alliance, the anti-Taliban coalition of the 1990s and early 2000s. He was made Minister for Foreign Affairs after the fall of the Taliban in 2001 and kept his position when Hamid Karzai became president in 2004 - although he left the government when he fell out with the president in 2006.

Who will win the new election?Karzai has become deeply unpopular in his first term because he has failed to tackle corruption and the drugs trade. However, the incumbent must be regarded as the favourite since he is a Pashtun, the majority ethnicity in Afghanistan - and, of course, he scored a larger share of the vote in the flawed first round.

Abdullah is a Tajik-Pashtun, and although he was a member of the Northern Alliance which brought down the Taliban, he failed to build a power base within it. Added to that is deep suspicion among southerners who question his allegiance to the Pashtun cause.

Will the new election be fair?Afghanistan had months to prepare for the first election, but only two weeks to prepare for the run-off. Security and logistical problems remain. The UN has said 200 out of the 380 district election officials have been fired following evidence of ballot stuffing. However, many polling stations - particularly in the Karzai-supporting south - are too remote to ensure that no fraud occurs. Despite calls to close or move these stations, even Abdullah says the disenfranchisement of these voters would be unacceptable.

What about the weather?Large parts of northern Afghanistan could be cut off if heavy snow falls as winter sets in. But the major concern in the south has to be the Taliban, who have done their best to disrupt the elections with attacks and threats of mutilation against those who vote. Snow here could actually help the elections by cutting off the Taliban's supply routes through mountain passes to Pakistan - although in the desert country of Helmand there is unlikely to be a drop-off in attacks.

Is there an alternative to elections?Because of the logistical difficulties, Western diplomats had hoped a run-off might be avoided if Karzai could strike a deal with Abdullah.
However, neither candidate seems keen to form a national unity government. Abdullah has said he is under no pressure to do so and Karzai has already rejected the possibility. But it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of some kind of compromise before polling day.

A senior Western official was quoted in the Times as saying: "No one wants a second round. It will be expensive, bloody and probably fraudulent. If Abdullah pulls out in the interests of Afghanistan he will be praised as a statesman like Karzai." ·