The Tories could just be one-term wonders

There is a belief among many senior Labour and Lib Dem members that a Conservative victory at the next general election is not a done deal. Call it wishful thinking or blind optimism, it got a serious boost this morning with the publication of the new Times Populus poll.

It reveals that the Tories' lead is based mainly on negative feelings for Labour rather than positive ones for the Conservatives. As the Times reports, it's a "Yes, but..." vote for David Cameron.

The complaint against Cameron is that he hasn't changed the party enough - that it's still the same old Tory party of Margaret Thatcher, Norman Tebbitt and Co.

The Populus poll, conducted over the weekend before the Manchester conference got underway yesterday, shows only 28 per cent of respondents believe the Tories have changed under Cameron. Sixty-eight per cent say the party is little changed and is enjoying a resurgence "mainly just because the Labour Government has become so unpopular".

Needless to say, the Mole's man at Labour party HQ was in a good mood this morning. "Cameron hasn't sealed the deal," he said.

If this underlying lack of enthusiasm for Cameron's Tories is credible, then coupled with the unpopular public service cuts we all know are coming, could this be a one-term-only Tory party?

It's a real possibility. It depends as much - maybe more - on George Osborne's skills as a chancellor as it does on Cameron's leadership.

Osborne has proved himself quite a showman in opposition, adept at making eye-catching policy, such as yesterday's pensions at 66 wheeze.  But will he deliver when he's in power? We don't know. Apart from Ken Clarke, Sir George Young and William Hague, no one on the shadow frontbench has government experience, and that includes Osborne. ·