Will Ken Livingstone make way for the British Obama?

London's next mayoral election is not until May 2012 but Ken Livingstone is already campaigning. Indeed, he's been campaigning ever since his successor Boris Johnson took his place in 2008. The spectre at Boris's feast, Ken is never far from City Hall, never far from a microphone, never unavailable for a soundbite.

It's not hard to guess why the two-times London mayor hankers after a third term. It was on his watch that London won the right to stage the 2012 Olympics. If he can retake the mayoralty from Johnson in May 2012, he'll have a good ten weeks' breathing space before the July 27 opening ceremony.  
 
There are many in Labour's ranks who believe it is fitting that the man who won the Games for London - with a little help, of course, from Seb Coe, David Beckham and Tony Blair - should enjoy the fruits of his undoubted enthusiasm.
 
He has support from John Cruddas, the increasingly influential East London MP, and from the Brownites, to whom he has been assiduously loyal during his unending tribulations. And he continues to court trade union leaders who were a key part of his power base.

So, even though he would be hitting 70 by the end of his term, Livingstone looks like a shoo-in as the Labour candidate.

The man standing in his path is Boris Johnson. The Tory has established himself as a popular mayor and, whatever ridicule he may have received for his typically shambolic role in the Beijing closing ceremony, he has to be odds-on favourite to romp home for an Olympic-era second term. Indeed he's so far out in front he might even imagine pausing at the winning tape, Usain Bolt-style, to acknowledge the cheers of the crowd.

But while 2012 is closer than you think - just ask an Olympics contractor or organiser racing to get East London ready for the Games - three years, give or take a few weeks, is a very long time in politics. The current picture could change radically.

By May or June 2010, unless he's knocked over by a bendy bus, David Cameron will be prime minister. A year on - less, possibly - he is likely to have become one of the most unpopular prime ministers in modern history. It doesn't matter that pollsters are currently recording a desire for public service cuts rather than tax rises. The public will be thinking very differently by the time those cuts begin to bite.

Unless an economic miracle intervenes, Prime Minister Cameron and Chancellor Osborne will oversee a bloodbath in public service cuts.

The trickle-down - make that pour-down - effect will be something to behold. 'Soft' Labour voters now happily rubbishing Gordon Brown will again have a flag to rally around. By the end of 2011, the Tory government will be heading into mid-term having outraged many members of their new fanbase and re-energised Labour supporters.
 
And who will be a convenient whipping boy for the Tories' butchery? Step forward Boris Johnson. Londoners could really make him pay.

At which point all hell will break lose in Labour's ranks. Those with a taste for schadenfreude who were happy to let Livingstone hang himself as the doomed Labour candidate against Boris, will demand an alternative. They will remind us of Ken's weaknesses - the cab bills, the Scotch in the morning, the failure to expose Johnson's frailties in the last election.  

If there is a sniff of a chance of victory for Labour in the London election they will fight to block Livingstone. But they'll need an excuse, and a good one at that.

Which brings me to the hunt for "a British Obama". This has not received much publicity, but it is an issue exercising many in the Labour party. They argue that Britain's minorities are not adequately represented in Westminster and that Parliamentary structures make it hard for ethnic minority politicians to rise to the top.

London, they say, would be an ideal launching pad for the first prime minister of "post-racist Britain" - the equivalent of Obama's base in Chicago.
 
How could Livingstone, one of the earliest and most committed campaigners for celebrating the capital's multicultural heritage, resist the call to step aside if the right candidate could be found for the May 2012 London election?

So, who might this "British Obama" be? Three London MPs fit the bill - one of whom, in my view, is way out in front...
 
• David Lammy, elected Labour MP for Tottenham in 2000 at the age of 27. He is reputed to be close to Obama, their friendship predating the Illinois senator's run for the presidency. However, there is little evidence that Obama's charisma has rubbed off on his friend. He is currently Minister for Higher Education and Intellectual Property, a job that gives him little chance to shine in public. To put it bluntly, Lammy is dull.

• Dawn Butler, Labour MP for Brent South since 2005. Currently a whip, pretty low in the government pecking order, and a casualty of the expenses scandal. Will her claims for a jacuzzi and for £18,000 worth of food bills be forgotten by then? Probably not.  

• Sadiq Khan, Labour MP for Tooting since 2005. A true Londoner, born in his local hospital and educated at schools in his constituency. Before he entered Parliament he was a leading human rights lawyer and campaigner on Muslim issues. He takes pride in the fact that the son of a London bus driver is now Transport Minister. Because his boss is Lord Adonis, who can only appear in the Lords, Khan is the department's top man in the Commons. Transport is a high-profile issue in London and if he can make the most of his Commons appearances in the final nine months of Brown's government, he has the chance to make a real name for himself. And he is squeaky clean on the expenses front.

Move along the bus, Mr Livingstone. ·