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Arctic Sea: did Mossad prevent an arms shipment from Russia to Iran?
A Russian journalist has put forward a tantalisingly plausible theory of what was behind the 'hijacking' of the cargo ship, MV Arctic Sea
The mystery surrounding the alleged hijacking of the Arctic Sea cargo ship has all the makings of a Hollywood blockbuster: pirates on the high seas, an Israeli mission to disrupt the illicit Russian arms trade to Iran, and the insidious secrecy of Russian intelligence.
Unlike a Hollywood tale, there is no clear storyline. As is true with so many Russian plots, such as the polonium murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London, the truth will likely never be known.
Yet a story has been put forward that seems to make sense – to the extent that one of its proponents has felt bound to go into hiding.
Iran has long sought to buy long-range S-300 missiles from RussiaRussian military sources believe the Arctic Sea was loaded with S-300 missiles. The theory is that these were stowed on board when she docked for repairs in the Russian Baltic Sea port of Kaliningrad before sailing for Pietarsaari in western Finland where she picked up her official cargo of timber.
The official version of what happened next – the line from Moscow – is that the Arctic Sea was hijacked by ransom-seeking pirates as it lugged its paltry £1 million load of timber from Finland to Algeria. When the ship was eventually discovered off the west African coast on August 17, eight hijackers were arrested by the Russian navy and now face trial.
But that, according to the sources of the conspiracy theory, is simply a cover story for what really occurred...
When the missiles were hoisted on to the ship in Kaliningrad, infamous as a centre of mob-driven gun and drug-running, someone tipped off Israel's intelligence service, Mossad, which makes a point of monitoring the trafficking of arms to Iran. After all, if Israel was ever to attack Iran's nuclear installations, the S-300s might be devastating.
Eager to avoid international scandal and keep their relationship with the Russians sweet, the theory goes that Mossad passed the information on to their Russian counterparts in Moscow, giving them the chance to intercept the shipment. Hence the Russian 'cover story' of the eight hijackers.
The conspiracy theorists point out that Iran has long been seeking to buy the long-range surface-to-air S-300s from Russia, to the dismay of the Israelis.
What gives credence to their theory is that two years ago Russia concluded a deal to sell S-300s to Iran, but has so far delayed shipments – either because of its own ambivalence to Iran's re-militarisation or because of intense US and Israeli pressure.
Adding fuel to the conspiracy theory is the fact that the Israeli President, Shimon Peres, visited Moscow the day after the Arctic Sea was "rescued" on August 17. The main message from that trip? After four hours of talks, President Dmitry Medvedev promised to reconsider his country's proposed sale of S-300 missiles to Iran.
Now to the man who appears to have paid most heavily for advancing the conspiracy theory...
Last week, Mikhail Voitenko, the respected Russian maritime analyst who first exposed the ship's disappearance, fled Russia for fear of his life after receiving threats from an anonymous caller who said his reporting was causing trouble for "serious people". For a day or two he continued publicising his case from self-exile in Istanbul - but his mobile phone number has since been disconnected.
Was Voitenko right? The theory is plausible enough, but certain questions remain. Were the alleged arms traffickers, posited to be former Russian military officials, working with the approval of the Russian government or independently? Did Israel really tip off the Russians, or carry out the raid on the Arctic Sea itself? Why has Russia forbidden any of the crew members from speaking to the press? And who are the eight alleged hijackers, now being held in Russia's most high security prison?
"I don't believe the Israel theory," Gunta Savin, the wife of alleged pirate Dmitry Savin, said by telephone from Latvia. "He's not the type of person to get involved in something like that. All I know is the investigation will last a long time."
What's more, there's no guarantee the truth will ever come out. ·
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I concur with Dan W. The S-300 is a complex air defence system, and not just a simple missile. It is usually deployed in large units, of battalion-size at least, and in the Russian army in regiments. It is a strategic defence weapon, aimed at other missiles as well as enemy aircraft, and does indeed require a number of different and sophisticated vehicles to be operational.
A ship like the 'Arctic Sea' would not be large enough to carry a complete unit of S-300. It might well be able to carry just a few of the actual missiles, but without their launch and support vehicles they would be pretty useless.
Iran acquired a significant number of S-300PMU1 from Russia back in 1993, and they are part of its air defence for a long time already. More recently it was reported that a further 300 missiles of this type were sold to Iran by Belarus.
In December 2007 Iran signed a contract with Russia for the purchase of the more modern and more sophisticated version S-300PMU2, but there have so far been no known deliveries.
Both versions of the missile would be a very effective defence system for Iran against any air attack. Since Israel threatened already repeatedly such attacks on Iran, they are most likely on the alert. And even though Israel has very modern aircraft, they would be vulnerable to both S-300PMU1 and S-300PMU2, with the latter being obviously more effective.
For more than a year Israel has been lobbying Russia strongly, trying to prevent any sale of S-300PMU2 to Iran, as Israel is well aware of the capacity of this weapon and knows that at the present time it has nothing to counter it with.
In the interest of a strategic balance, and subsequently peace in the Near and Middle East, it might actually be a good thing if Iran had an effective air defence that could prevent terrorist air attacks from Israel.
But with most of the world's nations being biased in favour of the Jewish state and afraid of Islam, it is rather unlikely that a significant amount of S-300PMU2 will reach Iran any time soon.
However, the present regime in Moscow is rather cynical and in no way friendly towards the West and its interests. If it suits the Russian leaders to ruffle a few feathers in the West, they will have no problems with selling S-300PMU2 missiles to Iran or other Islamic countries.
And when they do, there are much better and easier ways of transport than using small ships sailing out of Baltic ports and all the way around Africa to the Persian Gulf. As large vehicles are needed for an operational S-300 unit, transport over land is a much more likely option.
The S-300 can only be used as a complete unit. The weapons system consists of missiles, launch vechicles, radar vechicles, mobile command posts, trained personnel, etc, etc. This is not something you can hide on a small cargo ship. The missiles you might be able to hide, but they are useless by themselves.
Also, due to the complexity of the system, this is really not a black market item. Extensive after sales support is needed to provide software and technical support and to train the operators.
In short; this is not a very good conspiracy theory.