Missing freighter Arctic Sea: the conspiracy theories

A cargo ship has vanished off the coast of France after reportedly undergoing hijack near Sweden. Its cargo is reported to have been tampered with and the boat has been tracked by unknown agents. A gift to conspiracy theorists, the Arctic Sea's disappearance has already launched a fleet of rumours.

After two weeks undergoing repairs in Russia's Baltic enclave Kaliningrad, the 3,988-tonne, Malta-registered ship sailed to Finland, carrying 15 Russian crew. Loading up there with timber worth £1.1m, it then left port on 23 July. Just a day later, according to the crew, the Arctic Sea was boarded off the coast of Sweden by men disguised as anti-drugs police. The crew were tied up, and the ship was searched. Twelve hours later, the 'police' disembarked.

Back on course, the Arctic Sea was sighted as she passed through the English Channel, but has not been seen or heard from since 30 July off the coast of France. Her automatic tracking system either stopped working on that day, or was switched off.

THEORY #1: CAPSIZE
The Arctic Sea simply capsized and sank. It has emerged that two of her sister ships have already been lost at sea, and another two came close to disaster when they developed seriously instabilities. The Tiger Force sank with no loss of life in 1998, while the MV Teklivka went down in heavy weather in the Mediterranean in 2006. A dramatic rescue saw 15 crew members saved, but one died. The Nova Spirit and Torm Alexandra both came close to sinking, but were rescued. However, all the experts seem to agree that the ship could not have gone down: drifting timber or oil would certainly have been seen by now.

THEORY #2: PIRACY
The Arctic Sea has been hijacked by pirates. Either the bogus Swedish policemen never left the ship and are now in charge, or another hijack has subsequently taken place. The report received by the shipping company that the 'policemen' had gone was therefore either issued through coercion, or was made by the pirates themselves. However, while piracy is a frequent menace in the waters off the Horn of Africa, thanks to desperate criminals from failed state Somalia, it is unheard of in busy, modern European shipping lanes. Also, the Arctic Sea's cargo is comparatively low-value and, most compellingly, there has been no ransom demand.

THEORY #3: SECRET CARGO
According to Mikhail Voitenko, editor of the Russian maritime bulletin Sovfracht, "The only sensible answer is that the vessel was loaded secretly with something we don't know anything about." Voitenko speculated that this "expensive and dangerous" cargo could have been loaded while the vessel was undergoing repairs at Kaliningrad, before its official cargo was taken onboard in Finland. Some observers have speculated this could be a hint of a dispute between rival Russian mafia gangs, though Voitenko himself said drugs could be ruled out. However, the idea of a secret cargo was dismissed as nonsense by the director of the ship's operating company, who pointed out the ship was checked by customs agents both upon leaving Kaliningrad and also in Finland.

THEORY #4: THE CREW
The only account of the hijack by bogus policemen off the coast of Sweden was received by Swedish police indirectly from the ship’s crew via the shipping company. Perhaps the intruders never existed, and the ship's Russian crew have simply taken charge of the vessel themselves, planning to sell her cargo somewhere in the developing world. However, it is hard to see why they would fabricate a story which involves the pirates leaving them unharmed and departing, or why they would set the fictitious hijacking somewhere so unlikely as busy northern European waters.

THEORY #5: NUKES
From the more speculation-prone backwaters of the web comes the suggestion that the Arctic Sea could have been carrying a deadly, radioactive cargo. In this scenario, the 'Swedish police' who boarded her were special forces - SAS or US Navy Seals - toting Geiger counters. Finding, as they had expected, something nasty under the woodpile, weapons-grade depleted uranium from a crumbling Soviet nuclear facility bound for a middle-Eastern regime perhaps, but not wanting to create an international incident, they allowed the ship to go her way. But the Arctic Sea is now so dangerously radioactive, she is being shadowed by a submarine. Once she reaches quieter, deeper international waters, she will be remorselessly sunk. Beyond the obvious flights of fancy and unexplained motives, this theory suffers from the same catch as #1: a sunk Arctic Sea would disgorge her timber cargo, which would quickly be seen by other mariners. ·