Who will lead North Korea after Kim Jong-il’s death?

If the South Korean reports that Kim Jong-il has pancreatic cancer are correct, then the 'Dear Leader' of North Korea has only a one-in-five chance of surviving the next 12 months. So, thoughts must turn to who will take charge in Pyongyang after the funeral of the regime's figurehead.  

The most likely successor is Kim Jong-un, the leader's youngest legitimate son, from his marriage to a Japanese-born dancer. Nothing that comes out of North Korea can ever be taken for certain, but reports indicate that party officials have begun teaching the peasant populace a song about Kim Jong-un's qualities. He has been given a new name, Yongmyong-han Dongji, which translates as 'Brilliant Comrade'.

Kim Jong-un's two older brothers fell from favour: Kim Jong-nam tried to enter Japan in 2001 on a dodgy Dominican passport "to go to Tokyo Disneyworld" and the other, Kim Jong-chul, is considered too "effeminate". Kim Jong-un (pictured above on a placard at a protest in South Korea) is thought to have the necessary ambition to lead his family's hermit regime.

Kim Jong-un was described as being friendly with the children of US diplomats

He also has the necessary education - he went to the Kim Il-sung Military University in Pyongyang. And he was described as the spitting image of his father by a Japanese chef who wrote an insider's expose of the time he spent cooking for Kim Jong-il.

Before he studied the art of war, Kim Jong-un, who could be either 25 or 26, reportedly attended the prestigious International School of Berne in Switzerland, where he was described as shy, a Michael Jordan fanatic, and friendly with the children of American diplomats.

So, despite his alleged taste for violent Jean Claude Van Damme movies, and his recent appointment as head of the secret police, there are hopes that the transfer of power from father to multilingual son could open up North Korea in the way that Deng Xiaoping, who as a teenager in the 1920s had studied and worked as a shoemaker in France, reformed China after Chairman Mao.

But these are still distant hopes, especially so in light of North Korea's recent attempts to display its military might with their ever more frequent nuclear and missile testing. Speaking, against protocol, in February, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "If there is a succession, even if it's a peaceful succession, that creates more uncertainty, and it may also encourage behaviours that are even more provocative, as a way to consolidate power within the society." This uncertainty has contributed to falls in the value of its neighbour South Korea's currency and stock market.

It is thought that Kim Jong-il originally wanted to wait until the 100th anniversary of his father Kim Il-sung's birth in 2012 before handing over power to his successor. On account of his cancerous pancreas, the transfer of power might now take place in October after the '150-day battle', a national unity drive.

This campaign, promoted with adverts of workers and rockets soaring together into the sky, is urging citizens to work to bolster the country's economic independence. After the roads have been paved and the buildings renovated, Kim could call the first national convention for 30 years.

In the meantime, determined that his regime outlasts him, Kim Jong-il has set about transferring power from North Korea's bureaucracy to its 1.1 million-strong military, so the country can protect itself against its regional enemies.

This can be seen in the organisational shuffle which put the country's 2,000 or so espionage service agents under the command of the National Defence Commission (NDC), instead of the Workers' Party. It can also be seen in the promotion of General O Kuk-ryol to chair a commission in charge of the army.
 
General O, as a South Korean academic told Agence France Presse, is a "renowned hawk" who apparently served with distinction as a pilot. According to one analyst, knowing that North Korea will no longer be able to rely on volunteer Chinese soldiers, he has long wanted to modernise North Korea's military into a force that would be able to withstand an attack by America or another Western power. On a separate note, many people believe that his family controls a sizeable counterfeiting operation.

O, whose son is a friend of Kim Jong-un, could serve as an advisor to the young man, although 63-year-old Chang Song-taek, who married Kim Jong-il's younger sister, has also been suggested as a possible regent.

Though more of an administrator than a military man, Chang was also recently appointed to a senior post in the NDC. Like O, Chang was once purged by Kim Jong-il. Since 2006, when he was permitted back into Kim's inner circle, he has led an anti-corruption drive and an ambitious housing project in Pyongyang, which he had hoped to fund by trading South Korean prisoners of war for cash. The Chosun Ilbo, a leading South Korean paper, has reported that Chang led the country last year while Kim recuperated from a stroke.

There are other members of the Pyongyang hierarchy who have a taste for power, but these three - Kim Jong-un, O Kuk-ryol, and Chang Song-taek - appear to be in favour at the right time. Whether they can work together may determine how the world's most curious country behaves in the coming months and years. ·