A bad poll for David Cameron

He may have escaped all attempts to blast him from office, but Gordon Brown's standing with the public remains persistently poor - and falling. A new Populus poll for the Times, carried out after all recent elections and failed coup attempts, show his popularity continuing to fall.

But there is some deeply worrying news for David Cameron too, which underlines the message from the local and European polls that the general election isn't in the bag yet.

Despite all Brown's troubles, and his slumping personal rating (down to 4.38 out of 10 compared to 4.47 in early May), the overall Tory poll rating actually fell five points to 36 per cent while Labour's increased three points to 24 per cent. And, when offered a straight choice, 44 per cent said they would still prefer a Labour government compared to 42 per cent favouring the Tories.

The message appears simple. If Labour get back onto the front foot, with or without Brown, they could still deny Cameron an outright election victory.

The poll also suggests voters are gradually becoming more optimistic about the economy, with 32 per cent now believing Britain will fare 'well' over the next year, compared to just 18 per cent in January.

This coincides with yesterday's NIESR report declaring the recession is over after two months of growth in GDP. It also comes as the Tories are struggling to "clarify" remarks about plans to slash public spending made by shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley - a gaffe which has handed Brown exactly the weapon he wants for his general election campaign.

The row over who will cut the most still has the power to damage both sides, with the suggestion that Lansley was only repeating Labour's own spending plans when he said that 10 per cent cuts in public spending would be necessary over the three years from 2011. But it has opened up a chink in the Tories' armour on precisely the accusation they want to avoid – that they will be the party that cuts public spending.

It is too early for Brown to start believing the "green shoots" of economic recovery are about to save him in a year's time. The public still appear not to like him and believe Cameron and his team would run the economy better.

But the poll does suggest that the final, irrevocable shift away from Labour to the Tories still has not happened. That will give Cameron some restless nights over the coming weeks and months. ·