‘Recession over’: what they’re saying

The report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claiming that the British economy bottomed out in March, and that minimal growth in April and May means the recession is technically over, has brought mixed reaction. While Gordon Brown is doubtless encouraged, as our Westminster Mole reports elsewhere, some economists and business leaders interviewed by the media are less bullish.

WHAT THE OPTIMISTS ARE SAYING
Ray Barrell, director of forecasting at NIESR: "The evidence from the last few months is that we may well have reached the bottom of the depression".

Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec: "The figures generally bode well for a recovery and it's feasible that GDP will have posted a gain over the second quarter."

Alan Clarke, analyst at BNP Paribas: "We are accumulating more and more evidence that the recession is over. To be clear, we are not heading for a boom. The economy is still likely to grow much slower than potential, in turn meaning that unemployment will continue to rise. But the point is that the economy is no longer shrinking."

WHAT THE REALISTS ARE SAYING
Howard Archer, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London: "It is possible that we could see some growth in the second quarter and we may see a spell of modest growth in the second half of the year, followed by a modest contraction, but this is not the end of the recession."

Theo Paphitis, owner of Ryman's and a BBC 'Dragon': "I don't think we are anywhere near the end of the recession. We have probably had a bit of growth but this will definitely be a W-shaped recession. We have got a lame duck Government."

Sir Martin Sorrell, founder of the advertising agency WPP: "We hadn't noticed. The second half looks a little better than last year but that's because the comparative period was so weak. If you're asking have we seen a significant change in economic conditions, [then] no, we haven't."

Sir Philip Green, retail billionaire: "Businesses are not being funded properly. Unless the banking sector starts doing business we are going to continue bumping along where we are." ·