Brown is now a hostage to his cabinet

In yet another astonishing development in an already pretty extraordinary week, Gordon Brown appears to have survived the first flashpoint which might have seen him pitched out of Downing Street.Amid fevered speculation that minister James Purnell's resignation was to be the spark that ignited a coup against Brown, the Prime Minister saw the most senior likely suspects - David Miliband, John Hutton, Peter Mandelson and even Alistair Darling - all rallying to his side. But their support came after a reshuffle which saw Brown unable to make the sweeping changes he had so clearly intended to do.Mandelson, Miliband, Balls and Darling were all left in their current jobs - there was no demotion for Miliband, promotion to Foreign Secretary for Mandy or promotion to Chancellor for Balls. And Darling's not-so-veiled threat that any attempt to move him would see him return to the backbenches seemed to have paid off. Meanwhile John Hutton, seen by some as a possible stalking horse leadership contender, announced he was not only quitting the cabinet, but retiring from politics altogether at the next election.As ever, the key player seems to have been Mandelson, who made sure the troops rallied to Brown's flag and later insisted that, as a Blairite himself, he would know if there was a Blairite plot against Brown, and there wasn't.So as the predicted disastrous local election results started pouring in, we were left with the assassination that fell at the first hurdle - as James Purnell's attempt to force others to deliver the final blow to Brown failed - but with a Prime Minister held hostage by his senior cabinet ministers and with severely weakened authority.As the final touches were being put to the reshuffle, it appeared there was no longer an immediate threat to Brown. The Blairites had, for one reason or another, been silenced and the prospect of mass resignations or a killer intervention from one of the big beasts had evaporated.
Needless to say, it is not quite as simple as that. As far as his top team is concerned, Brown must have been put under notice that he may still fall victim to a move to oust him - it just will not come from one of them. Perhaps they all remember the old saying that he who wields the knife never wears the crown, and they could not agree to do it as a knife-wielding group on the steps of the Whitehall Theatre, as it were.
Alan Johnson, meanwhile, has expressed his unquestioning support for the Prime Minister, but also said "never say never" when asked if he might one day run as leader - so there is one possible candidate in the wings. That might be enough to encourage backbenchers in the wake of the Euro results on Sunday night.
And all eyes do now turn to backbenchers who have been urged to sign an email letter calling for Brown to quit, and who may yet force a vote of no confidence in him. Equally there may be that often talked of stalking horse candidate who announces he or she is ready to stand in a leadership election, thus paving the way for one of the cabinet to join the election.But, for the moment, these developments seem less rather than more likely, and certainly Brown looks safer tonight than he did last night. ·