What Jacqui Smith’s departure means

Jacqui Smith may be the first Cabinet minister to announce she is quitting her frontbench role - jumping before she is pushed - but no one expects her to be the last. As one Labour backbencher observed today: "This looks like the first wave before a tsunami of resignations." And the fallout for Gordon Brown could be disastrous – even terminal.
 
Smith had long been marked down as a reshuffle casualty, and not just because of her own expenses claims and her husband's porno movies-on-expenses, but because of the widespread belief she is simply not up to the job.
 
But the revelation she is to stand down at the reshuffle, expected either this Friday or next Monday after what are set to be disastrous local and Euro elections for Labour, has come at the same time as a series of Labour MPs have announced their intention of standing down from parliament at the next election – something Smith has not yet said she will do.
 
It left deputy Labour leader Harriet Harman facing challenges on the BBC’s World at One to explain why it appeared the wheels were coming off the Brown government – something she attempted to deny. But it is an impression that is rapidly gaining ground in Westminster.
 
If, as many now expect, there is a run of other Cabinet resignations, perhaps headed by Chancellor Alistair Darling, the pressure on Brown will be intense and the reshuffle will lose any positive impact it might otherwise have had.
 
There is already speculation that Smith, or her "friends", leaked her intentions to stand down in order to take some of the sting out of what would otherwise be seen as a sacking. It certainly denies Brown the ability to suggest he is taking positive action in his reshuffle.
 
At the moment, the Prime Minister is making it abundantly clear he intends to stay in No 10 and take Labour to the next election. But those already plotting to oust him before then might suddenly find their hand strengthened. One told the Mole that all they need is a Cabinet minister, or even former Cabinet minister, to join their cause to blast Brown out of office.
 
They foresee a speech similar to the one delivered by Sir Geoffrey Howe attacking his leader Margaret Thatcher which marked the end of her premiership.
 
But, for the moment, the most damaging factor is the impression that the Government is running out of control, headed by a Prime Minister whose authority is so weakened he cannot whip it into line. The next few days were always likely to be difficult for Gordon Brown; they could yet prove decisive. ·