Swine flu still deadly threat

Whatever became of swine flu? This time last month, the world was preparing itself for a deadly pandemic. The virus sweeping the globe had the power to infect one-third of the world's population.

After the first death was confirmed in Mexico on April 13, the numbers snowballed. On April 25, the World Health Organisation declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern after nine cases of the virus were confirmed in America, before spreading to Canada, Spain and the UK. On April 30, the WHO seemed to confirm our worst fears when it raised its swine fever alert to level five. The pandemic was nearly here.
 
But then – in Britain at least – the issue of MPs fiddling their expenses caught the public imagination and swine flu was wiped off the front pages. Has the danger been averted? The short answer is no.

So far, more than 11,000 cases have been confirmed in 41 countries, 95 people have died and the virus continues to spread. Just yesterday, health officials in Japan announced that two schoolgirls had been diagnosed with the disease following a trip to New York.

The 95 deaths worldwide are nothing compared to the predictions  4 weeks ago

Elsewhere, a 21-year-old man from Canada has tested positive in Beijing, bringing the number of victims reported in mainland China to five. In Taiwan, the first case has emerged after an Australian doctor travelling from Hong Kong arrived in the country showing symptoms. In Britain, three new cases have been confirmed in the West Midlands, bringing the number of cases here to 112, the highest of any country in Europe.
 
But while the virus is clearly still alive and kicking, it is causing much less carnage than first imagined. The 95 deaths worldwide are nothing compared to the predictions of four weeks ago and 78 of those deaths were in Mexico, the source of the outbreak. Although six people have died in the US from swine flu, 13,000 Americans have died since January as a result of seasonal flu, suggesting that 'regular' flu carries a much greater risk than the new H1N1 virus.  
 
Yesterday, the Mayor of Mexico City, Marcelo Ebrard, announced that the restrictions imposed on the country last month in a bid to halt the spread of swine  flu – the closure of churches and restaurants and so on - would be lifted after the capital managed to get through a week without any new infections being reported.
 
But there are concerns that there is worse to come. British health experts say swine flu could pose more of a threat at the end of the year, when the traditional winter flu season arrives. The fact that Australia, currently in its winter season, has recorded five new cases, gives weight to this theory.
 
Scientists have now developed a vaccine to combat the new Mexican strain of H1N1 and last week the British government signed a deal to secure 90 million doses by December, more than enough for everyone. This makes Britain, along with France and Germany, the best prepared countries in the world. But while south-east Asia and Australasia are also well prepared, developing nations are much less so, with only 35 countries in Africa having pandemic plans in place. ·