Snap election tweet: cock-up or hoax?

A 'tweet' by the Government Chief Whip Nick Brown has set hearts a-flutter at Westminster about the possibility that Gordon Brown may call David Cameron's bluff and announce a snap general election.

It seems unlikely, given Brown's claim on GMTV this morning that conceding to Cameron's call for an early election would lead to "chaos".

Cameron, sensing he had Brown on the ropes, went for him at Prime Minister's Questions today, pressing Brown to say what would be so "chaotic" about giving the British people a vote on the Government?

Brown hit back: "I meant if a Conservative Government was elected."

To Tory cheers, Cameron hailed this as the "first admission" that Brown thought he was going to lose.

Brown's rejection of an early general election cheered up the Labour benches, still glum over the beheading of the Speaker and anxious at the thought of going to their electors to explain all about the second homes they have flipped, the Capital Gains Tax bills they have ducked, and the champagne flutes and silk scatter cushions they have bought at the taxpayers' expense.

The Twitter posting, apparently made by Nick Brown - it carried his name and photo - was addressed to the Labour MP Austin Mitchell and said: "The new Speaker will only have a few weeks to get settled in before the general election is called."

There are two good reasons for believing it is a hoax: first, because Nick Brown would surely not tweet about such a state secret as the timing of the general election and, second, because if he was going to tell anyone, it wouldn't be Austin Mitchell, who is seen by the whips' office as a total maverick, to put it politely.

On the other hand, the Mole is told that it is feasible that Nick Brown is a rookie Twitterer and was responding to a post written yesterday by Mitchell which read: "Any opinions on who should be the next Speaker?" Being inexperienced, he might have thought that his response, like an email, would only be visible to Mitchell; when he realised that the entire Twitter community could see his post, he deleted the account.

Also, an early election cannot be ruled out. Gordon Brown is an historian who knows that Jim Callaghan left Labour in the wilderness when he gambled that things would improve if he waited until spring 1979, and lost. Callaghan would have limited the damage to Labour if he had gone to the country in autumn 1978.

Brown knows that things can only get worse. If the economy doesn't pull out of its nose-dive by next May unemployment will go past three million, more businesses will collapse, and state spending will have to rise. Britain could be on the verge of bankruptcy if he waits until this time next year. A landslide for Cameron could put Labour in the wilderness for a generation.

The possibility of an early general election cannot be ruled out, with Alan Johnson replacing Brown as party leader after the doomed June 4 local and Euro elections. ·