Saakashvili on brink after Georgian army mutiny

After quelling a rebellion by 500 soldiers at an army base outside Tbilisi today, the Georgian authorities predictably blamed the Kremlin for the failed mutiny.

"The plan was organised with Russia," said a senior Interior Ministry official, "and the plan was at a minimum to spoil the Nato exercises, at a maximum to carry out a large-scale military uprising in the country."

Just as predictably, the Russians said they had nothing to do with it. "Of course," retorted the Russian envoy to Nato, "we have slowly begun to get accustomed to mad accusations by Georgian political and military officials that if there is hail or thunderstorms, this is all Moscow's work."

Today’s attempted mutiny is not the first time an armed uprising looked possible

Whatever the cross-border bickering, the aborted coup does suggest that President Mikhail Saakashvili (pictured above left, surrounded by bodyguards at the army base where the mutiny occurred), the American-educated lawyer who led Georgia into war with Russia over South Ossetia last August, is losing his grip on power.

Saakashvili became president after the bloodless Rose Revolution of 2003 and was re-elected last year; with five-year terms, he doesn't have to go to the polls again until 2013.

But, having been blamed by many for pushing Georgia into an unnecessary conflict and a humiliating defeat over South Ossetia, the calls for him to step down are growing. There has been widespread political bickering, and regular defections by senior members of his government.

Today's attempt at a mutiny was not the first time that an armed uprising looked possible. The government has screened a number of videos in an attempt to persuade the public that the opposition is disloyal and dangerous.

In March, nine members of the Democratic Movement-United Georgia, were arrested after they were caught on surveillance cameras buying automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers ahead of a protest. Their leader, Nino Burdjanadze, who had been a key ally of the president during the Rose Revolution, said this was an absurd attempt to smear his party.

In truth though, the political opposition is divided, ineffective, and not yet that much of a threat. So the movement for change has had to come from elsewhere, and much of it has tried to chase the president from office through ridicule, rather than an armed uprising.

On April 9 this year, tens of thousands took to the streets of Tbilisi. Many threw carrots and cabbages at the presidential residence, and others let a rabbit loose - a symbolic accusation of cowardice. The crowds have since dwindled, leaving behind a smaller core. This includes a troupe of actors who mock the president's over-amicable nature with mimed buffoonery.

Likewise, anti-government posters have appeared all over the capital. Many show a now-famous image of Saakashvili awkwardly chewing his tie during the war, while others mimic the president by showing a picture of him with Dr. Dot, a buxom American celebrity massage therapist. She lists Simon Cowell, Mariah Carey and the Rolling Stones as clients, and is famous for her innovative technique of biting her patients.

Dr Dot (real name Dorothy Stein) declared Saakashvili "the best-looking president on earth" after she was flown in, at the government's expense, to tend to his stiff neck. Their friendship has opened him up to widespread derision.

In this political void, Giorgi Gachechiladze, a popular folk singer nicknamed 'The Unknown', has emerged as the unofficial leader of the protests. He stars in a reality TV show in which he interviews leading opposition figures from a mock jail cell - to symbolise Georgia's descent into a police state. He has vowed to remain there until Saakashvili goes.

After today's failed mutiny, how long this will take remains unclear. Many Georgians, after all, simply wish to avoid any further disruption during the economic crisis, and have no enthusiasm for regime change. But international factors appear to be working against Saakashvili.

While his friendship with the previous US administration was such that the road leading to Tbilisi airport was renamed George W Bush Avenue, Barack Obama's improved relationship with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev means that Saakashvili can no longer rely on America's unconditional support. ·