Bachmann’s straw poll win spells the end for Palin

Michele Bachmann has emerged as the front runner in the race to become the Republican presidential candidate in 2012 after winning the Ames straw poll in Iowa.

The Minnesota congresswoman beat Ron Paul by just 152 votes, less than one per cent of the 17,000 votes. But her victory, on the day that Rick Perry also entered the race, is seen as significant and is a blow to Sarah Palin, who has yet to announce whether she will seek the Republican candidacy.

Bachmann is on a roll. Writing on the New Statesman blog Jon Bernstein says: "Given she only announced her decision to run two months ago, Bachmann appears to be the Republican candidate with momentum."

While Geoff Earle in the New York Post says: "With her Iowa straw-poll victory yesterday, Bachmann - who was born in the Hawkeye State - has proved her indignation is well in tune with Iowa Republicans, who wield some of the greatest per-capita political power this year on the planet."

But the victory means little. Since the straw poll was first held in 1979, the person finishing first or second has gone on to secure the support of the caucus in primary season. But Toby Harnden of the Telegraph says it does not guarantee success. "Ames cemented a few trends rather than changing the dynamic of the race," he writes. "Winning the Iowa caucuses does not mean winning the GOP nomination. And winning the Ames Straw Poll doesn't mean winning the caucuses. A lot of the significance attached to Ames is because there were so many journalists here. So a little perspective is needed on the significance of the 16,892 ballots cast."

Bachman has other issues to address. Nate Silver in the New York Times says that despite the win her campaign has been "clumsy". "It doesn't help Mrs Bachmann that unfavorable views of the Tea Party are increasing after the debt ceiling controversy, even among some Republican voters," he adds. "But she has cleared her first hurdle with aplomb."

Rick Perry is a force to be reckoned with. Although he was not on the ballot paper the Texas governor still came sixth, with his supporters having to write in his name. He even beat Mitt Romney, who did not campaign in Iowa.

Perry announced that he was standing for the republican nomination on Saturday and Jonny Dymond of the BBC said: "Out-of-town and out-of-state, Texas Governor Rick Perry was upsetting the apple cart in a big way."

He added: "Now a three-way race seems to have emerged, with Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fighting for the votes of the more conservative wing of the party, and Mitt Romney working to fire up a base that so far has seemed unimpressed with his campaigning style."

But it's bad news for Sarah Palin. The 2008 candidate for vice-president appeared in Iowa on Friday but she has yet to announce whether she will stand for the Republican candidacy. And Toby Harnden in the Telegraph said that people were tiring of her antics. "The law of diminishing returns now seems to be applying to her teasing appearances in between periods of going dark," he wrote.

Of even more concern will be the result itself. Nate Silver of the NYT says: "She would much rather have seen [Tim] Pawlenty win the straw poll, in which case there would be more room on the right of the field.

Writing for Reuters, Patricia Zengerle says that Palin has financial concerns and adds: "Palin's appeal has also been usurped by Bachmann, a Tea Party movement leader who appeals to many of the same anti-Washington voters. Perry is also popular with Tea Party movement backers."  ·