The secrets of George Osborne: it's time he explained himself

SAY what you like about Ed Balls – and people tend to say what they don't like – at least he is consistent. When he was in office, he did not worry that the government might be borrowing too much. Now that he is in opposition he is similarly unfazed, never mind that the deficit is even worse than it was during his time at the Treasury.

His call at the weekend for another big slug of borrowing to fund £12 billion worth of tax cuts in next month's budget was entirely predictable. Equally predictable was that it should have fallen on deaf ears as far as the coalition is concerned.

Rather than listen to Balls, George Osborne will be hoping that the Bank of England has finally got its forecasts right, and that inflation will soon start falling back to its two per cent target. This should allow consumers to start spending a bit more again, thus boosting growth without the need for further government stimulus. He will also be watching the signs of growing recovery in the US economy closely, and looking for a knock-on effect here.

Both are reasonable assumptions, at least as long as Iran does not precipitate an oil crisis and last night's Greek loan deal holds, and by the autumn we will know whether they are going to deliver. If the Chancellor has any financial firepower in reserve – and it is a big if - he should keep it till then. To perform a U-turn in the meantime would be very damaging politically.

But even so, given that he faces a flat-lining economy, Osborne does appear remarkably laid-back. To his credit, he has managed to take the country with him on the need to reduce the deficit, and keep it with him even though the process is proving more painful than expected. Beyond that, however, his interest in economic matters often seems to dry up.

In his last Budget he put forward a sweeping and detailed programme of supply side reform. A year on, hardly any of it has been implemented. Then, in his autumn statement, he changed tack and announced a raft of schemes to subsidise investment and boost lending, most of which could have come straight out of the Gordon Brown songbook. Again, nothing much seems to be happening.

As for the forthcoming Budget, so far the only indication of what might be in it has come from the Lib Dems. They have said publicly that they want more help for the low paid, financed by higher taxes on the better off. Because they are his coalition partners, the chances are that Osborne will have to give them at least some of what they are after.

Doubtless, he will seek to offset this with a few Tory flourishes to please his own party. And since he is good at such tactics, he will probably get the headlines he wants. Yet for a man credited with being a master political strategist, the Chancellor appears surprisingly happy to leave the broader economic debate to his rivals.

He and the Prime Minister have frequently criticised the Eurozone for its lack of emphasis on growth, and its over-reliance on austerity. But that is pretty much their policy here, and beyond it the fog descends.

Both Labour and the Lib Dems have given us much more of an idea of how they think the economy should look once the crisis is over, than the Chancellor has. On a whole range of matters, from what the future balance should be between tax and spending, to regulation and competition, or the role of the City, we have little idea of what he thinks – or indeed whether he has thought about them at all in any depth.

His assumption seems to be that once he has got the deficit under control the electorate will reward the Conservatives, for perseverance and consistency if nothing else. But neither quality has ever been a guarantee of electoral success – as Ed Balls could tell him.

The risk George Osborne runs is not so much that the economy fails to recover, but that when it does he will be left looking a one trick pony, with plenty to say about the past but not enough about the future. Next month he needs to come out of his comfort zone, go beyond the usual range of budget measures and explain where he thinks he is taking us. ·