Petraeus move heralds Afghanistan rethink

The changing of the guard among President Obama’s senior defence and foreign staff marks a major departure in strategy and policy, particularly in America’s next moves in Afghanistan.

The current CIA director Leon Panetta is to take over from Robert Gates at the Pentagon. Panetta will be replaced at the CIA by David Petraeus, currently the military commander in Afghanistan. 

The crucial post of US ambassador to Kabul is to be filled by the veteran diplomat Ryan Crocker. He will succeed Karl Eikenberry, a former army general who has not enjoyed good relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

The switch-round of Panetta, Petraeus and Crocker signals the Obama’s administration’s desire to reach a negotiated settlement for Afghanistan, agreed with some but not all of the Taliban leadership and their key backers in the Pakistan army and ISI intelligence agency. 

When Gen Petraeus moves to his new job on September 1, after the summer fighting season ends in Afghanistan, the Pentagon will start cutting back on the surge which brought more than 100,000 combat troops to Afghanistan. 

On a smaller scale, Britain is now expected to follow the Americans in announcing the reduction of its forces of around 11,000 currently in Afghanistan. If anything, the British exit is likely to swifter and more abrupt. 

Officially, Nato allies in the international force ISAF are not due to step down from combat operations until the end of 2014, the moment of transition to full Afghan control of all aspects of security and defence in the country. And even then, theoretically, Britain and the US were expected to leave some forces on the ground to mentor, train and support Afghan forces. 

But my Westminster sources say David Cameron is seeking a faster exit from Afghanistan than he is prepared to admit in public as yet.

"He really wants to get out very fast," a senior figure with defence experience told me. "He has no real interest in Afghanistan, and he wants to leave nothing behind, no advisers, and not even small units of special forces."

The prime minister’s determination to quit Afghanistan has been reinforced by his commitment to resolve the deepening crisis in Libya, where the likelihood is growing that international ground forces – including troops from the UK – will have to be committed in some guise or another.

The departure of Robert Gates from the Pentagon means the break-up of a formidable partnership he forged with secretary of state Hillary Clinton – and she too has indicated she wishes to step down at the end of President Obama’s first term next year.  

It was an unlikely pairing, Gates a Republican and a survivor from George W Bush’s cabinet, and Hillary Clinton the former Democratic presidential candidate. Yet together they pushed a reluctant Obama into backing the surge in Afghanistan – though lately they are reported to have disagreed sharply on the approach to Libya.

Gates’s replacement, Leon Panetta, has always advocated a light counter-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, whereby al-Qaeda elements and not the Taliban are the prime targets and the task is largely conducted by a relatively thin deployment of special forces. 

This 'light-touch' approach was rejected by both Petraeus and his predecessor on the Afghan frontline, Gen Stanley McChrystal and there could be a clash of egos and strong wills and big egos - nothing new for Washington. 

It does show, at least, a capacity for flexibility and risk-taking in strategic thinking within the Obama administration, now sadly lacking in the UK and Europe - as the adventure in Libya illustrates.
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