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Enter the drone: Gaddafi has reason to be afraid
Crispin Black: One mistake and Gaddafi could be taken out by a missile ‘fired’ from the Nevada desert
It may not be over by Christmas but it should, with luck, be different this time. Here's why. There is one crucial ace in the pack that Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein, the previous targets of no-fly zones, did not have to face on any large scale Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles: in plain language, hunter killer drones.
The United States fields two types the smaller and lighter Predator and the truly awesome Reaper with a 66ft wingspan and a payload of 14 Hellfire missiles or laser-guided bombs. It can stay in the air for 14 hours at a stretch.
It¹s about half the size of a Second World War Lancaster but its smart weapons pack several times the punch. To carry out the Dambusters raid in 1943, Wing Commander Guy Gibson would have needed only three of these extraordinary machines.
The drones are flown remotely, usually from Creech Air Force base a few miles outside Las Vegas. The 'pilots' who control them have been honing their skills with strikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It¹s not just the technical specs that are impressive. These machines are the cutting edge of a whole intelligence system think flying iPod or Kindle. Backing them up them are a battery of intelligence-gathering sensors across the world that Bletchley Park could only dream of.
It¹s not yet clear what part the RAF will play in enforcing UN Resolution 1973 - though there are early reports from Italy of British planes being armed with missiles - but GCHQ's listening stations in Cyprus and Gibraltar will be invaluable.
The combination of near real-time target intelligence and Reaper's 14-hour 'loiter time' means that there is a good chance of killing Gaddafi himself and/or his sons early in the campaign if President Obama wants to.
In 1987, Gaddafi managed to hide in the desert from Ronald Reagan's warplanes. But this time it's going to be much more difficult to avoid detection by state-of-the-art allied intelligence systems.
If he gives himself away - the modern equivalent of a cigarette lit by a weary sailor on an Atlantic convoy with a U-Boat in pursuit - and if there is a Predator within 100 miles, it can attack within minutes. No take-off required. No briefing. No pre-mission bacon and eggs for the crews it just attacks.
The pilot from his armchair in the Nevada desert can guide a missile or a 500lb bomb through a tent flap in the Libyan desert.
One note of caution, though. Gaddafi will do everything he can to frustrate the no-fly regime. His bogus ceasefire - witness this morning's reported bombardment of Benghazi - is just the beginning of the procedural wrangles. Expect also some gruesome improvisation designed to weaken the allies' resolve.
Father and sons have the taunting and cunning mindset of serial killers and they seem to enjoy it. Human shields, hostages and some stuff we haven't yet thought of: you name it they will try it. They have already threatened to bring down civilian airliners (again).
But there are signs that Gaddafi's inner circle is feeling the pressure. His radio broadcast on Thursday night promising 'no mercy' for the people of Benghazi will rank as one of the great 'own goals' of the season.
Just as the UN Security Council was dithering into its second day of negotiations, his ravings were so bloodcurdling that even the Chinese Communist Party, perpetrators of the Tiananmen Square massacre, thought it over the top, withholding their veto.
Effective cunning needs sound judgment. Despite at least one PhD between them, it looks as though the Gaddafi family have lost the plot. ·
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@Ron Walker: I "might do well to reflect on the usage of tanks", but then you may do well by reflecting on the point of my comment, rather than on the merits of the UAVs.
Article (deviously!?) tries to camouflage their disastrous debut in Yugoslavia. That entire mission was, and still is - but decreasingly so, praised as a model of who should be bullied and who should do the bullying.
I am too old to be impressed by technology and old enough to have enough cynicism about anything that Washington-London-Paris-Bruxelles praise.
Just how much oil does Libya produce?
Simon Saivil might do well to reflect on the usage of tanks - the new "high tech wonder weapon" during WW1. It's little short of amazing that they ever got used again, after their appalling initial misuse. The same might be said of the French "Mitrailleuse" during the Franco-Prussian war of 1871.
The lesson is surely a simple one: it usually takes the military a while to work out what to do with new technology... but they DO tend to get there eventually. Extrapolating from initial (and often disasterous) "teething problems" is a waste of effort.
Oh please! These machines are very impressive to the point that they are on a completely different level of technological achievement to the Kindle! or the iPod.
Sir:
You claim that
"...There is one crucial ace in the pack that Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein, the previous targets of no-fly zones, did not have to face on any large scale  Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles: in plain language, hunter killer drones...."
How much a headache the UAVs will prove for Mr. Ghaddafi is an issue I do not enter into. However, your claims about these weapons during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia are incorrect at best, and tendentious propaganda at worst.
Please consult the attached link:
http://dragan.freeservers.com/agresija/UAVoverKosovo.htm
This is certainly a damned if you do and damned if you do not situation. Most generals will say that you need infantry on the ground to win. Now we have the computer controlled drones which have two obvious advantages. Not a single invader life wil be risked. and all you need to do to keep going is a budget. It makes Lybia an excellent testing ground for a product with a great future and possibly enough market value to pull the USA out of its economic mess until another nation good at technology can lob in.
My guess was that the USA would get into this fight as soon as possible and now they look to have the dignified entry with the poodle to the side and the old French Ally. The point in their favour is that they have very high UN support. Looking forward to seeing how this pans out but it is going to be rougher on Lybians than admitting defeat to Gadaffi.
NATO have a vested interest in keeping the 'nutters' alive, for that very reason! More than once Hitler could of been targeted at earlier stages of WW2 but his poor judgement and overpowering influence on German military tactical deployment was invaluable!