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AV referendum could embarrass David Cameron
Cameron could lose either way, writes Richard Ehrman in his first new weekly column for The First Post
When David Cameron agreed to a referendum on the Alternative Vote, as part of the coalition agreement that put him into Downing Street, he does not seem to have thought it was any big deal. The assumption was that the No to AV campaign would score an easy victory, and Nick Clegg would be strong enough to take the hit without it causing more than a minor hiccup for the coalition.
Ten months on, with the polls showing the pro AV campaign ahead by around five per cent, and Ed Miliband now urging Labour MPs to vote Yes, that early complacency looks dangerously misplaced.
For Clegg, far from being a matter of little moment, the referendum could well be make or break. After a miserable year for his party, he can't afford to fail them on electoral reform. But at least if he wins, the Lib Dems can look forward to many more years of coalition with him at the helm, or so they will be hoping.
For Cameron the outcome is likely to spell trouble, win or lose. For now, he seems to be sticking to a strategy of keeping the No campaign deliberately low key, in the hope of emerging the winner without unnecessarily ruffling Lib Dem feathers. But the danger is that if the polls don't tilt his way soon, he will have to make a much clearer choice.
Will he alienate his coalition partners, on whom his position depends, by fighting to win? Or will he pull his punches, and risk damning himself in the eyes of his party on whom his position also depends?
The dilemma for the coalition is that one of its two leading figures will have to lose this referendum, but neither can now afford to. The dilemma facing David Cameron is that he may not be able to afford to win it, either. ·
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Ed Miliband should be applauded for his stance on AV.
Vote NO for the same old politics.
Vote YES for the hope of change.
David Cameron will still have every opportunity to minimise any damage.
Clearly FPTP is not fair because so many votes cast in safe seats are wasted. Every vote should make a difference.
For real change we have to look beyond FPTP and AV. Direct Party and Representative Voting (DPR Voting) is fair because every vote makes a difference regardless of where you live.
Voting is simple, counting is simple quick and transparent, it works with our existing single member constituencies.
google dprvoting or http://www.dprvoting.org
Well this is a very insightful article. I think the author, Mr Ehrman, is quite right, Mr Cameron did indeed think that the Conservatives would always so big to the LD that it would make a relatively small difference, even under AV. But it does change the rules significantly, and all the other parties see "change as opportunity". In UKIP we will be asking disaffected Con voters to put us first as a full-blooded protest vote, then Con second, so their vote is not wasted either way if it falls through to the second candidate. I think it will prove fruiful for us, and we are looking forward to the next General Election very positively - about May 2015 would be my bet. That will give us plenty of time to get organised and build up funds. Bring it on.
I do not believe David Cameron has any real heart for winning the NO campaign. He is a natural compromiser who has little affinity with the Conservative Party, and would find it far more comfortable to remain in office with the support of the LibDems, however unpalatable that might be to main stream Conservatives with whom he finds it far more difficul to deal than with Mr Clegg and his rather strange party.