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Tunis yesterday, Cairo today, London tomorrow?
Neil Clark: These revolts aren’t peculiar to Muslims – they’re about young people having no hope
Tens of thousands of people, fed up with economic hardship, unemployment, and the corruption of their country's ruling elite, gather in their capital city's main square and call for the resignation of their pro-western government and for new elections to be held.
No, I'm not referring to events this week in Cairo, but Belgrade.
While Egypt's disturbances have made front page news the world over, Serbia's huge anti-government protests have gained far less media attention. And the Serbs aren't the only Europeans who are taking to the streets to express their disapproval of their leaders.
In neighbouring Albania, 20,000 demonstrators took part in anti-government protests in Tirana last month (above), during which four civilians were shot dead, and 17 policemen injured. Large anti-government demonstrations were again held in Tirana and other Albanian cities on Friday.
On January 28, in the Turkish-half of Nicosia in northern Cyprus, around 40,000 people gathered to protest against their government: a general strike was also held.
Many commentators have portrayed the revolts against the ruling regimes in Tunisia and Egypt as something peculiar to the Arab world. It's all to do with Islamists trying to take control, or about the ‘Arab world's 1989', we're told.
In fact, they're part of a global phenomenon. What is fuelling the anti-government protests in the Middle East, in Serbia, Albania and Turkish Cyprus are economic factors. People are taking to the streets, not because they are Islamists, far-leftists, or far-rightists, but principally because they want a life. They want jobs and a decent standard of living.
It is little surprise that Wael Ghonim, the young Google executive who started the Facebook campaign that did so much to inspire the protesters in Cairo, should have said in his TV interview yesterday: "This revolution belonged to the youth of the internet, then it belonged to all young Egyptians, then it belonged to all of Egypt."
It's revealing to look at the unemployment figures - and in particular the youth unemployment figures - in the countries where the disturbances are occurring.
• Youth unemployment in Tunisia doubled in the period 1996/7 to 2006/7 and is estimated to be around 30 per cent, with the country's official overall rate of unemployment is 14 per cent.
• In Egypt, people under 30 make up for 90 per cent of the 9.4 per cent officially unemployed - though most analysts believe the real rate to be much higher.
• In Serbia, overall unemployment is almost 20 per cent, with youth unemployment a staggering 50 per cent.
• In Albania, unemployment is around 14 per cent, with around 50 per cent of young people unemployed.
• In Turkish Cyprus, 12 per cent are unemployed with 31.4 per cent of young people without a job.
The street protests in these countries illustrate a growing discontent, particularly among the young, with the neo-liberal model of globalisation and rising anger against corrupt and out-of-touch political elites who seem not to care about their predicament.
And the bad news for those elites is that the discontent is only going to spread.
Last August, the International Labour Organisation revealed that 81 million young people worldwide were without jobs at the end of 2009 - the highest level of youth unemployment ever. The ILO expects the increase to have continued throughout 2010, and with governments across Europe committed to deficit-slashing austerity programmes, unemployment is only going to get worse in 2011.
It's not just about people not having jobs. It's also to do with rocketing prices of basic commodities. World food prices rose to a record high in January, up 3.7 per cent from December, with the World Bank President Robert Zoellick warning: "We are going to be facing a broader trend of increasing commodity prices, including food commodity prices."
As the economic pressure on ordinary people intensifies, could what happened in Tunisia - the overthrowing of an unpopular government by angry citizens who have simply had enough - happen in Europe?
It's not just the governments in Belgrade and Tirana who ought to be concerned. In Greece, with more IMF/EU induced austerity on the way, the situation could flare up again at any time. Romania is another country to keep your eyes on: last year the country saw its largest anti-government demonstrations since the fall of Ceausescu in 1989, with 50,000 taking to the streets in opposition to the government's austerity measures.
And there's nothing to say that large-scale anti-government protests won't spread to Britain, too, with economists warning of a double-dip recession and youth unemployment reaching a record high in January.
It seems that across Europe ruling elites have a choice: either change their economic policies and put full employment back on the agenda, or face an increasingly angry populace.
Up to now, the years 1848 and 1917 are the ones most associated with revolution. Judging by the way it's going so far, 2011 could end up surpassing them all. ·
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Excellent article. Only problem is that in Britain youth are so apathetic and were watching fimbles when previous generations were wising up to what was happening.
Still, we'll have to see how it all turns out: we are probably the first generation for whom having a career is an unlikely probability.
Globalization - nothing but a con job to make rich people richer and set the rest of us at each other's throats. This insane, corporately driven, year-on-year growth fetish will kill us all.
Young men going off to war has happenned in history at least every 25 years for thousands of years. Students have rioted in Russia before the revolution and all over Europe to bring down the Iron Curtain, etc. The distinction now is the countries that are having this bother do not have a war to go to. The British along with the American and anybody else who can be persuaded to join in are not making such silly blunder. Declaring war is great for the coherent nation, national interest, central powers and keeping the status quo. No wonder Mr. Cameron is talking about extremists. "Taking the Cross" to the crusade against terroism. He would do a lot better to support football more. Internet is simply oil to a force that is already there.
It seems that what all the Western governments, and perhaps many others fail to realize is that they stink of corruption themselves - in their governments and in their economies. And it's mostly financial corruption. Look at what goes on in the U.S. Congress, in Britain, the Lords selling influence and legislation to the highest bidder, and the greatest stench of all in the corporate world. Obscene salaries and bonuses to people who are little more than crooks. When unemployed and disenfranchised youth have to look at that sort of garbage each and every day, and then realize that they likely have no way to share in the spoils, it's no wonder that uprisings have not happened sooner. In Egypt, the islamics will be the first to take advantage of the situation, but unless governments around the world start to reevaluate the paradigms that they function in, there is a lot of bad news on the horizon. Bread and circuses only keep the forces at bay for so long, and in the end, when there is no justice, there is violence.
The economic cost of unemployment and youth despair should not be taken lightly. Legislation is needed to force employers to take on trainees with the legal power of reducing working hours of existing employees in compensation. The limitless supply of 'tiffin warriors' and polish plumbers whom Sidney has hitherto gleefully employed at the cheap (with no maternity pay either) has also meant that in house training of the indigenous is no longer a business necessity. In addition the annual tax free personal allowance may be granted only upon doing say 30 days of unpaid community service pa, further soaking up youth unemployment.
Excellent observations...it will be interesting to see how true your predictions become
I think it is time to start using a more truthful language to describe the the so called 'ruling elite' who dominate the politics of most countries. Monsters like Ben Ali and Moubarak are no more than murderous thugs whose sole purpose in life is to steal and use the so called 'security forces' to avoid exposure, expropriation and prison. Their property holdings, spread around the World but not in their own countries, would need an army of accountants and various agents just to kep tabs on everything. A modest property company needs the full time attention of astute managers. The idea that some donkey like Moubarak has a brain big enough to fuss over his money empire and run a complex country like Egypt is absurd. Without the support and criminal compliance of dozens of like minded thugs, willing to murder on command, divert money, leave false accounting trails, subvert and compromise individuals and carry out Hell knows what criminal acts, this sort of Evil Empire would not be possible. The Sicillian Mafia look lame and inept beside such monstrous goings on. Yet these people carry on their criminallity with impunity. Lauded by the 'international elite', entertained by Royalty, called allies and generally grovelled to by almost everybody.
Is there no law proscribing the activities of these people? Poor Madoff is serving a huge prison sentence for trying to run off with a few billion, he is a mere naive child compared with monsters like Moubarak and Ali. At least he is not known to have murdered thousands in order to keep the loot, unlike most of his criminal superiors. The list of such mega criminals in charge of nations would run into dozens even maybe hundreds.
If the young are in revolt it is because they see this hideous situation and are young enough not to have children. If you have a family, the secret service can call on you and threaten to rape your kids unless you back off. I fear for the protestors in Egypt, the sociopaths and perverts of the secret service and police will do their thing, ignored, of course, by our wonderful diplomats and politicians.
It is time that non politicians in all countries demanded that this easy compliance with evil so beloved by our dear leaders came to a stop. The argument that we must be careful not to offend because we need oil or some such must be seen for what it is, an inept appeasement. If human slavery, murder, extortion, public beheading etc are the price of oil then I would happily do without it. I will walk and shiver with a clear conscience.
Maybe it's time for a bit more 'creative destruction'. Who shall we go to war with now?
While there is no doubt that corruption and lack of basic freedoms is a huge factor in the justifiable protests in many countries, surely we need to also consider the fact that many young people in the west don't want to get a good education and don't want to work. It's all to easy in the UK and the USA to blame the government for all of society's ills instead of asking "What am I doing to improve my life?" Protesting is a right, but smashing store front windows, looting and trying to injure or kill those whose job it is to keep everyone safe is not the solution. I say this just as a cautionary note.