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Only engineers can save us from overpopulation
Wars and unrest predicted as world population hits 9.5 billion - but science can save us
Overpopulation will become the biggest challenge facing the human race in the 21st century as the global population rockets, reaching 9.5 billion by 2075, water consumption increases by almost a third an the number of people living in slum conditions in cities soars. And as civil unrest and wars over natural resources become commonplace, the West will be forced to abandon its 'throwaway' culture.
But there is some hope for humanity: two reports out this week suggest that it will be possible for the world to support an extra 2.5 billion people.
The first, from the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, is entitled Population: One Planet, Too Many People?. It claims "population is in our view the defining challenge of the 21st century," and paints a bleak picture of a world of 9.5 billion people.
Author Dr Tim Fox warns: "Up to 1 billion people could be displaced by climate change over the next 40 years and we are likely to see an increase in unrest as resource shortages become clear. The term Nimbyism will become obsolete. No-one's back yard will be immune from these effects."
As the number of mega-cities, home to more than 10 million people, explodes and the urban population doubles new solutions to problems of energy supply, and food and water production will have to be found.
But the report states there are "no insurmountable technical issues in meeting the needs of 9 billion people... sustainable engineering solutions largely exist".
Suggestions from the 70 engineers who helped put together the report, which sets out a series of "engineering development goals", include abandoning large-scale power production in favour of local, low-carbon, energy schemes in cities, replenishing underground aquifers by capturing rainwater and improving food storage.
But Fox adds that countries will have to work together to meet the needs of the world's expanding population. "This is not altruism. This is self defence," he warns.
The second report from France, looking at agriculture, suggests that it would be possible to feed a global population of 9 billion while improving bio-diversity, but warns that "the rich must stop consuming so much".
The author Herve Guyomard of French agricultural research agency Inra says that food scientists will also have to work together globally and that steps must be taken to ensure that food is freely imported around the world. ·
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1 billion displaced through climate change? In your dreams! To feed a population of 50% more than at present we need to keep increasing our carbon emissions. If CO2 increases and the climate warms slightly this will benefit agriculture tremendously. We'll have higher precipitation, less drought, and we'll be able to use vast tracts of land which are currently too cold, too dry or too saline. But best of all, higher CO2 will enable us to increase yields. The vast majority of food crops use C3 photosynthesis, which is tremendously improved at higher levels of CO2, as well as enabling crops better to withstand extreme heat, cold, salinity, and drought. We'll see new cultivars developed that can harness this additional atmospheric CO2 to wonderful effect. In 2060 the world will look back with gratitude at those nations that had the greatest carbon emissions, and today's efforts to curb such emissions will look like a death wish.
Engineers are not the only solution. What is really needed is to discourage peole from producing children they cannot afford to rear satisfactorily.