Demands for referendum push David Cameron to the brink

AN ONLINE poll by The Daily Telegraph this morning underlines the danger David Cameron is facing over his refusal to allow the British people a referendum on a new EU treaty if a deal can be reached to shore up the eurozone at tomorrow’s crisis summit.

The poll shows that more than 70 per cent want a referendum if he agrees to a treaty change. And you can include most of his own backbenchers in that camp too, judging by the angry mood after Prime Minister's Questions yesterday.

Needless to say, if a referendum were to be held in the foreseeable future, the likely result would be a vote to get out of Europe.

The Mole went nosing around the Commons and detected the most hostile mood for ages against Cameron on his own side. The issue was on everyone's lips - along with the Guinness - at the Irish Embassy Christmas Party last night too, attended by Owen Paterson, the Northern Ireland Secretary.

Paterson has broken ranks - along with London mayor Boris Johnson - in saying in The Spectator that there must be a referendum if Britain has to sign a treaty involving the 27 members of the EU, not just the 17 members in the eurozone.

Johnson told Radio 4 yesterday that any treaty “we felt unable to veto” must certainly be put to a referendum.

This morning, the former Tory leader and arch eurosceptic Lord (Michael) Howard sought to rescue Cameron. Lord Howard said on the Today programme that if a deal is reached within the eurozone, a referendum will “not be relevant”.

However, Tory MP David Davis was on the same show an hour later saying Cameron should “draw a line in the sand”. Any changes beyond financial arrangements must be subject to a referendum, he argued.

Most Tory MPs clearly agree with Davis and showed their contempt for their leadership by challenging Cameron at his most awkward session of PMQs since he became leader. He also could not answer the 'R' question when he was challenged by Labour leader Ed Miliband: what are you going to do about the repatriation of powers?

Cameron sounded like a drowning man struggling to find a lifebelt - splutter, splutter, gurgle, gone. Miliband for once was walking on air afterwards.

The problem for Cameron is that he has too many people he doesn't want to upset - Ken Clarke and the Lib Dems in the coalition, who want to see the eurozone stabilised at any price; Merkel and Sarkozy with whom he's got to negotiate; and the Tory MPs who want to hold his feet to the fire over a rash promise that he would use such an opportunity to repatriate powers to Britain.

Cameron keeps saying that he will protect Britain's interests over the City - hinting that he will get some assurance that the EU won't gang up on him and introduce a tax on financial transactions if he signs the treaty. But his own MPs don't trust Merkel and Sarkozy to honour such a deal. Some are already talking about Cameron returning with a “piece of paper” like Chamberlain with his promise from Hitler of “peace in our time” in 1938.

The geometry of the EU is going to change forever after tomorrow. But it won't simply be 17 'ins' and ten 'outs' including Britain. Sarko and Merkel are now plotting to include in regular summits the seven countries who are seeking membership of the eurozone club, making it a club of 23 against four who will include Britain in frozen isolation.

The move, designed to splits non-euro countries such as Poland, Sweden and Denmark away from Britain, will lead to decisions on broader economic policy being taken without British involvement. Peace in our time? Cameron will get no peace after this deal. ·