Pollsters relieved - but who said it was 'too close to call'?
Pollsters will face questions about methods especially after that 7 Sept 'rogue poll'
The relief of the pollsters will be as heartfelt as that of Unionist politicians at the decisive result of the Scottish referendum. All seven major polling companies whose surveys I have been following these past few weeks can say they picked the winner.
But although they foresaw a No win, they underestimated the ten-point margin of victory - 55 per cent No to 45 per cent Yes after all the votes were counted this morning. Their constant urging that it was "too close to call" appears, in hindsight, to be a misjudgement.
The final eve-of referendum polls by Ipsos-MORI and Survation had suggested a No victory of 53 to 47. A final polling-day survey by YouGov yesterday, when they recontacted those they had questioned earlier in the week and asked how they actually voted on the day, predicted a No victory of 54 to 46 – not bad, but still short of reality.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The greater-than-predicted winning margin suggests that those of us who suspected a "shy No" phenomenon were right to so. This the group I identified on Monday – Scots who concealed their intentions, possibly from family and friends as well as pollsters, because they felt awkward about seeming negative amid the excitement – some would say intimidation – promoted by the Yes campaign.
But, of course, another explanation could be that the pollsters simply under-estimated the No vote all along and/or miscalculated their "weighting" methods.
It was the release of YouGov's election day prediction that saw the pound climb sharply on currency markets last night. Yet the pound only fell in the first place because of YouGov's famous "shock poll" in the Sunday Times of 7 September which showed the Yes campaign suddenly going into the lead by two points.
That poll didn't just hit the pound – it had a profound effect on the campaign, galvanising the Better Together team, getting Gordon Brown back on the road and – most controversially – bringing a promise from the three party leaders in London of further devolution of tax and spending powers to Edinburgh in the event of a No victory.
In the pollsters' defence, it can be argued that whatever their individual methodology, they tended to come out with similar results, suggesting they were picking up the same shifting opinions.
But the debate about that 7 September poll will continue: did it point up a genuine Yes lead or, as Andrew Neil put it on BBC TV early this morning, did "one rogue poll" cause David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband to make promises they are going to find hard to keep?
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Unpasteurised milk and the American right
Under the radar Former darling of health-conscious liberal foodies is now a 'conservative culture war signal': a sign of mistrust in experts
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Government shutdown looming? Blame the border
Talking Points Democrats and Republicans say funding for immigration enforcement is the budget battle's latest sticking point. That's about all they agree on.
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Conservatives have not limited their attack on reproductive rights to the US'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Can Cameron put the Falklands sovereignty dispute to bed?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary says issue 'not up for discussion' ahead of visit amid renewed push from Argentina
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Will America recognize a Palestinian state?
Today's Big Question Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu opposes the move. Some see it as the only route to peace.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Fasting to burger buffets: the weird and wonderful diets of politicians
Why Everyone's Talking About Rishi Sunak reportedly starts his week with a 36-hour fast
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
How many seats do Labour and the Tories need to win?
In depth Changes to constituency boundaries mean Labour needs even bigger swing at next election to form a majority
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published