Saudi Arabia won’t send Saleh back – will they?

As Yemenis celebrate in the street – see News in Pictures - at their hated leader's departure to neighbouring Saudi Arabia for urgent medical treatment, the future of their country remains shrouded in uncertainty.

It is not even clear how badly injured President Saleh was in the direct hit on the presidential compound on Friday. But he and several key members of his government are now in Riyadh, vice-president Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi has been temporarily appointed head of state in his absence, and most commentators believe he will never go home. But are they right?

After weeks of wrangling with Saleh to get him to step down, Saudi Arabia is now in a "pole position" to influence events, writes Ian Black, Middle East editor at the Guardian. "Most experts believe that [the Saudis] will not let [Saleh] go back."
 
Most agree with this interpretation. The Washington Post's Peter Finn and Greg Miller write that, "Saudi Arabia, with US backing, will almost certainly prevent Saleh’s return to Yemen".
 
Angus McDowall and Bill Spindle in the Wall Street Journal argue that while the Saudis maintain that Yemenis must choose their own leader, they "aren't likely to facilitate Mr. Saleh's return".
 
But for Neil MacFarquhar of the New York Times, there is still one "wild card" that could throw off all these predictions. "Many Saudis have long supported Mr Saleh because of his skill in suppressing dissent," he writes. "The many rivals for power in Yemen have venomous relations that had been held in check only with Saudi influence and Mr Saleh’s adroit political manoeuvring."
 
Yemen is of vital interest to the Saudis, whose northern border with the restive country is referred to as its 'soft underbelly' in terms of security. Yemen's instability exposes Saudi Arabia to problems such as highly active al-Qaeda groups - namely AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) - drug trafficking and illegal immigrants.
 
The Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deal to remove Saleh from power, which the Yemeni president has consistently rejected, included a period of transition before he left, probably to ensure a power vacuum did not occur.
 
But Saleh's unexpected departure, says MacFarquhar, has made it "more difficult to structure an orderly handover of power and eventual elections", vital if the country is not to give way to a violent power struggle between its numerous and well-armed tribes. Saleh's reign may not be over just yet. ·