The trouble with almonds

In the third dispatch examining the human stories behind the business and financial trends shaping America, we explore the country's insatiable appetite for almonds, and the effect it's having on drought-stricken California. Have farmers bitten off more than they can chew?

A growing appetite

The perennial problem of water shortage in California has spawned its fair share of memorable baddies: the 1970s classic noir film, Chinatown, saw Fay Dunaway and Jack Nicholson battle with some of the worst. But whatever did the humble almond do to merit inclusion? Blame the protein-packed nut's newfound popularity among health-conscious Americans. Since 2005, America's appetite for almonds has grown by more than 220%, to the point where not even peanuts can compete anymore. Almond flour is big business for companies catering for the nation's gluten-free craze; and almond milk has supplanted soy as the non-dairy milk of choice, with sales even overtaking the real stuff in some stores.

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The big problem is that almonds require an awful lot of water to grow – and the growing is being done in drought-ridden California. Currently enduring a fourth year of record-low rainfall, the Golden State is well and truly parched. Lakes and streams have shriveled up; the Sierra Nevada snowpack, responsible for nearly three quarters of California's freshwater, is at just 20 percent of its average. But while residents and businesses are being forced to reduce consumption (overwatering your lawn can result in a stinging $500 fine), farmers are essentially receiving a free pass. Given that agriculture swallows up 80 percent of the water consumed in the state, that approach hasn't gone down well with many city-dwellers. Public enemy number one? Almond farmers, who alone account for a tenth of that agricultural water use.

The blame game

Almonds are very big business in California. With around 800,000 acres of orchards – twice as many as two decades ago – the state accounts for a whopping 82% of global supply. But boy, is it thirsty work. Growing a single kernel requires over a gallon of water. What's more, farmers can't leave almond orchards fallow in dry years, as they do with crop fields. If the trees aren't watered, they die – and replacements take five or six years to fully bear fruit.

It's not hard to see why farmers have gone big on almonds. The Golden State's warm, dry, frost-free climate provides perfect growing conditions; and with demand for the popular nut soaring, prices have more than doubled in the last five years. But the record-breaking drought is forcing water-poor farmers to drill into aquifers and suck water out of underground reservoirs, creating dangerous levels of subsidence. The ground in some parts of the region sinks by almost a foot a year, causing massive damage to roads, bridges, and pipelines. All of which is yet more ammunition for the anti-almond brigade, who insist that Californian farmers shouldn't be growing such ruinously thirsty crops.

Punishment enough

The Golden State's almond growers are unmoved. They argue that the drought is crippling agriculture enough as it is: last year, the farming industry in California took a $2.2bn hit through lost crops and increased water costs, and shed 17,100 jobs. Advances in irrigation technology, the farmers note, have significantly reduced the amount of water they use per pound of almonds. And what about meat? Alfalfa, a crop used to feed cows and other livestock, requires far more water than almonds, and thanks to increasing global demand for meat, farmers are producing more and more of it. If the water warriors are after a bogeyman, shouldn't it be the alfalfa growers?

Besides, it's not like farmers in California are using proportionally more water than other states: the 80% usage rate is about average. Farming, after all, is a uniquely water-dependent industry. Yes, almonds are thirstier than most – but if there's a demand, farmers are going to fill it.

Oasis or mirage?

Clearly, neither side of this debate is going to back down. There is a perception that "waste is always water used by other people," Jay Lund, a professor of engineering at the University of California, told NPR. "This is, I think, a natural human condition in such a dry place."

So what next in California's almond wars? If the dry weather continues, antipathy towards farmers will only grow. There's a chance that the drought will be partially relieved by El Nino, a complex weather pattern affecting rainfall across the globe. Due to hit the state in the autumn, this year's El Nino is one of the strongest on record – the last time it was this powerful, in 1997, it helped double southern California's rainfall. But that still wouldn't be enough to mitigate the devastating effects of four long years of drought. And thanks to global warming, the state's hot, dry conditions look set to become the new normal.

If anything, the most likely way the debate over almonds will be resolved is if consumers simply fall out of love with them, and move onto the next food fad. But for the moment, at least, there's no sign of Americans losing their appetite for their favourite nut – whatever it takes to produce them.