Six Nations: Wales’ backs can score against France

Ding-dong! The bell's about to be rung for round three of the Six Nations and first up are Wales and France. Tonight's encounter in Cardiff promises to be a humdinger with the French strong favourites to lift the Six Nations belt after impressive wins against Scotland and Ireland. The 33-10 rout of Ireland, the defending champions, was one of the best performances by France in the Six Nations for years, a mixture of controlled aggression and clinical finishing, all expertly marshalled by scrum-half Morgan Parra, the outstanding player in the tournament thus far.

Commonsense indicates that the French should be too strong for Wales, particularly in the scrum where Wales are without four of their first-choice players, including prop Gethin Jenkins and second-row Alun Wyn Jones. Wales have fewer injury concerns in their backline (except at scrum-half where third-choice Richie Rees wins his third cap) but will their exciting backs get much opportunity to test the French defences if their forwards are under the cosh?

Against Ireland, the French forwards starved their opponents of possession and Brian O'Driscoll and Tommy Bowe saw precious little of the ball. But if the Welsh pack can at least win their own ball in the scrum and line-out, they have the backs in Shane Williams, Jamie Roberts and James Hook capable of creating tries against a French side that has conceded just one try in the tournament so far.

The French defence is superbly well organised but possibly susceptible to the off-the-cuff attacks favoured by the likes of Williams and Hook. If Williams does score against France, he'll overtake the legendary Gareth Edwards as Wales' leading try-scorer in the Six Nations with 19.

The other factor that might work in Wales' favour is the notoriously unpredictable French psyche. In the two-and-a-half years since Marc Lievremont became coach, they have yet to win three games on the bounce. In last season's Six Nations, France produced some wonderful rugby to defeat Wales in Paris, only to play like schoolboys a fortnight later in losing 34-10 to England.

Similarly, they beat world champions South Africa in November, and two weeks later were hammered 39-12 by New Zealand. With sections of the French media already declaring that France are as good as Grand Slam champions, the players will have to be on their guard against complacency.

In their two matches to date in the Six Nations, Wales have produced only 15 minutes of quality rugby, but that was enough to secure a stunning comeback against Scotland and reinvigorate their season. And we're talking Wales, in Cardiff, on a Friday night. There's going to be some noise in the Millennium Stadium tonight. Expect nothing less than a rousing battle.

"Rousing" isn't a word that springs to mind when describing England's rugby of late but their match at Twickenham on Saturday against Ireland could turn into just that. England have taken a lot of stick in recent weeks, much of it merited, but they aren't as bad as some people make out. Take Keith Wood, for example, the former Ireland captain and hooker, who this week ridiculed England by saying they were unable to "string two passes together", forgetting that in beating Italy a fortnight ago they scored one of the tries of the tournament; and, Keith, it involved four passes.

England's problem isn't the sterility of their backline, it's a lack of nous, savvy, shrewdness, call it what you will. Their former World Cup-winning scrum-half Matt Dawson best summed this up when he said of their victory in Rome: "They did actually play well at times, but there was no sign of them having a 'feel' for how the match was unfolding and adapting their tactics as they went along."

And as Dawson went on to say, no one stands more accused in this respect than fly-half Jonny Wilkinson. He began brightly against Italy but as the game progressed and the Italians stuck doggedly to their unambitious kicking game, Wilkinson lacked the awareness, and the adventure, to see that the best way to beat the Italians wasn't simply to kick the ball back to them, but to counter-attack from deep. England have some of the most exciting runners in Europe – players such as Ugo Moyne, Mathew Tait and Riki Flutey – but they are being hindered by Wilkinson's innate conservatism.

England know they won't be able to kick aimlessly to Ireland tomorrow. If they do, then O'Driscoll, Bowe and the rest of their gifted backs will punish them. The fact that Ireland coach Declan Kidney has selected 24-year-old Johnny Sexton at fly-half over veteran Ronan O'Gara indicates the sort of game the visitors will seek to play. Sexton is a more attacking No 10 than O'Gara, though he has just three caps to O'Gara's 95. So Kidney has made a statement of intent in picking him, telling the English: We're going to come at you.

How will England respond? If they don't accept the challenge, and revert to their hesitant, risk-free rugby of late, expect an Ireland victory, which would be a grand way for prop John Hayes to celebrate becoming the first Irishman to reach 100 caps. But if England pick up the gauntlet and Wilkinson sets his backline free, we'll have a classic on our hands.

In the weekend's other contest, Scotland take on Italy in what is being billed as the Battle for the Wooden Spoon. Both sides are winless so far, but in losing 31-24 to Wales a fortnight ago, the Scots played some of their best rugby for years. They're without three of the first-choice backs – Chris Paterson, Thom Evans and Rory Lamont, all out for the rest of the tournament – but they should still be too strong for Italy, even though they lost 23-20 last time they went to Rome. ·