Can anyone beat Jenson Button to BBC award?

The shortlist for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year (SPOTY) award was announced last night and while there were few surprises about those included in the final 10 names, the omissions from the list are the more significant. Only one member of the Ashes-winning England cricket team was nominated (captain Andrew Strauss), when arguably it was Stuart Broad's bowling in the Fifth Test that ultimately set up the 2-1 series victory.

Cyclist Bradley Wiggins missed the cut, despite finishing fourth in this year's Tour de France, the highest place that a Briton has ever achieved. And in horse racing, Tony McCoy missed the chance to become the first jockey to take the award for the remarkable achievement of completing 3,000 lifetime victories (and for taking home the champion jumps jockey trophy for a staggering 15th consecutive season).

The full list reads: Jenson Button (Formula 1); Tom Daley (diving); Jessica Ennis (heptathlon); David Haye (boxing); Phillips Idowu (triple jump); Beth Tweddle (gymnastics); Mark Cavendish (cycling); Andy Murray (tennis); Andrew Strauss (cricket); and Ryan Giggs (football). Button, Daley, Ennis, Haye, Idowu and Tweddle all became world champions in their respective sports this year. The niche nature of diving and gymnastics suggests that Tweddle and Daley will probably be happy enough to have garnered nominations.

Triple-jumper Idowu was a surprise winner this year, having crumbled under pressure at last year's Olympics, and could be a good outside bet, but the likeliest track and field star to take the gong will be Jessia Ennis, who returned from injury to destroy a top quality field at the World Championships in Berlin in August. The only mitigating factor against her is that her achievement may have faded in the memories of the voting public. Likewise the heroics of Strauss, whose England ought to take the team award this year.

Cavendish, one of the more irascible sportsmen this country has produced, notched up six stage wins the Tour de France, narrowly missing out on winning the green points jersey, as well as 15 stage wins at other races. With many millions of active cyclists in the country, he could be the dark horse candidate, but his win-at-all-costs personality could work against him. Murray is rewarded for a year that saw him reach a Wimbledon semi-final for the first time, but again, perceived diffidence could turn voters off him. And isn't it about time he won something?

Ryan Giggs would be a thoroughly popular winner of the award, and having just scored his 100th Premier League goal - and being the current holder of the PFA Footballer of the Year award - could bring a few bonus points for recognition. But footballers don't really chime with the spirit of SPOTY, and you have to look back to 2001 to see Giggs' erstwhile colleague David Beckham win the award. Boxers on the other hand have always been popular, and Haye could follow in Joe Calzaghe's footsteps from two years ago for his defeat of Nikolai Valuev to become WBA heavyweight champion.

But all the smart money is going on to runaway favourite Jenson Button, whose drivers' championship in Formula 1 was all the more unexpected for his team Brawn GP (as was) having only been constituted in March 2009. The public have always warmed to racing drivers, even making the personality-less Damon Hill a double winner in 1994 and 1996. Button could fall down on the recent negotiations that took him from Brawn to McLaren, where he was portrayed by his former team as 'mercenary', but it shouldn't check his momentum. And rarely enough for this gong, he does actually have a personality. ·