Are publishers preparing for Apple tablet in 2010?

Speculation is mounting that Apple's much-anticipated but never-acknowledged touchscreen tablet computer will be released in the spring.

Ever-optimistic, Apple-philes have been whipped into a frenzy following new advice from Yair Reiner, a senior analyst at investment firm Oppenheimer. "Our checks into Apple's supply chain indicate that the manufacturing cogs for the tablet are creaking into action and should begin to hit a mass market stride in February," he told clients.

"The February ramp schedule suggests a late March or April commercial release, since Apple will need to build at least five to six weeks' of inventory before going live."

This is not the first time that rumours of the impending announcement of an Apple tablet have done the rounds, but Reiner's note coincides with other juicy iTablet-based speculation.

Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that two book publishers, Simon & Schuster and Hachette, are "taking a dramatic stand against the cut-rate $9.99 pricing of ebook bestsellers". New hardback books in the US normally retail at closer to $27.

Schuster says it will delay by four months the ebook publication of 35 leading titles which are due to come out in hardback early next year. The company's CEO, Carolyn Reidy, said: "The right place for the ebook is after the hardcover but before the paperback."

This model echoes the movie industry's delay between a film's theatrical release and the DVD release. Bearing in mind that sector's well-documented problems with piracy, and the ease with which the determined book pirate could type out a newly-released hardback for distribution on the internet, it remains to be seen how long Schuster's "dramatic stand" will last.

But there is reason to believe that the four-month delay will be a one-off gambit on the part of Schuster and Hachette. Under this theory, the publishers will take advantage of Apple's new tablet, which will coincidentally launch four months into 2010, if Reiner is to be believed.

Reiner also claims that Apple has been in negotiations with publishers and will offer a 30/70 per cent split of profits - the 30 going to Apple. As this would be on a non-exclusive basis, the terms represent extremely good value for publishers, who have so far had to endure a 50/50 split when distributing ebooks via Amazon and its Kindle reader.

Meanwhile, five publishers who claim a joint readership of 144m have just announced that they are forming a consortium to "prepare print publications for a new generation of digital devices". Murdoch's News Corp, Conde Nast, Hearst, Meredith and Time Inc, want their publications to appear in "recognisable" and "beautiful form" in full colour. They say revenue will come from advertising, content sales and subscriptions - glossing over the fact that internet users have so far resisted the attempts of publishers to make them pay for online content.

At least two members of this consortium have publicised their own projects seemingly aimed at full colour ereaders that have specifications similar to those rumoured for the Apple tablet.

Last month Conde Nast announced it was optimising a version of its technology magazine Wired for a tablet-style computer: its other magazines will follow suit by mid-2010. Meanwhile, Time Inc has demonstrated a video of how it imagines Sports Illustrated magazine would work on a tablet.

Apple refuses to cooperate with Conde Nast - or even acknowledge the existence of a tablet. But the publisher is not going out on a limb. Even if Apple's tablet once again fails to materialise in 2010, there will be plenty of other homes for the consortium's publications.

Tablet computers are already available and Dell is reportedly planning to launch a tablet computer with a 5-inch screen in March, while pictures of Microsoft's unconfirmed Courier device, a dual-screen, booklet-shaped touch screen number have been 'leaked' online.

But because of the company's reputation for beautiful, genre-defining design, it is the Apple tablet that gets people excited - and the possibilities have led to it being dubbed a 'Kindle killer'.

Amazon's ereader currently rules the market because of the website's dominance in ebook distribution. But its virtual monopoly has made a lot of enemies among publishers, as Reiner explains: "As innovative as it is, we believe the Kindle has disgruntled the publishing industry by demanding exclusivity, disallowing advertising, and demanding a wolfish cut of revenue."

The Kindle also suffers from a dull black and white screen. If Murdoch and his publishing consortium come knocking, it will surely be at Apple's beautifully rendered door. ·