The Northern Ireland question: Alex Salmond's ticking bomb

NO ONE involved in the debate about Scottish independence has yet considered the most literally explosive problem that this profound constitutional re-arrangement is likely to throw up. Independence for the Scots may answer the West Lothian Question, but it's going to pose an even more difficult one for the Irish and the English - the West Belfast question. 

If the Scots go their own way after a referendum, what happens to Northern Ireland? The Scots will be ‘A Nation Once Again', but we should remember those words are also the title of the catchiest and most rousing song in the Irish Rebel Music repertoire. (The 1972 version by the folk band the Wolfe Tones is in my view the best recording.)

Last night's two bombs in Londonderry, credited to IRA dissidents, are a timely reminder that the impact on English security will be grave. As Republicans in Northern Ireland look east across the North Channel to Scotland (just 22 miles away at the narrowest point), they will see unfolding before them a "demi-paradise" – a country revelling in the sort of menacing and rancid anti-English sentiment more suited to the H Blocks than a modern European democracy.

Everywhere, the hated Union Flag will be lowered, military bases closed and even the ‘Black Bomber' submarines, mighty symbols of the ‘independent' nuclear deterrent, kicked out to new bases in the West Country.

For those who dream still of a 32-county Ireland it will be a time of opportunity. Even if the main Republican leaders have been domesticated into subsidised members of the guild of professional politicians, many of their supporters remain militant. A little rioting, a few bombs across the Province, maybe the threat of an attack on London, and the English government would be confronted with the difficult decision - do we send an army once again to Northern Ireland to keep the peace?

The Bravehearts of the SNP, if they have thought about this at all, will assume that the impact of a renewed round of Troubles in Northern Ireland will primarily affect the Province itself and its new English (sole) masters. They could not be more wrong. The consequences for the stability of the newly independent Scotland itself would be profound.

One of the reasons that successive UK governments sought to control the killing and rioting rather than just bid goodbye to Northern Ireland was that most assessments assumed that if inter-communal violence reached fever-pitch in the Province, it would likely spread to other parts of the UK – Scotland in particular.

The country's two largest cities, Glasgow and Edinburgh, are deeply divided on sectarian lines. The ancient tribal loyalties regularly erupt at football matches, especially in Glasgow, between the Roman Catholic Celtic and Protestant Rangers. If violence kicks off seriously in Northern Ireland as a result of Scottish Independence it will disfigure the streets of the newly independent Scotland – for sure.

And what happens if the Orange Men, afraid of being cast adrift, choose to express their loyalty by trying to confederate with the Scottish Crown, a natural enough home for most of their Lowland Scots Protestant genes?

Let's hope none of this comes to pass. But win or lose, Scotland looks set to become a less pleasant place. If an independence referendum is defeated, its supporters are likely to become sour, pathologically anti-English opponents of any revised settlement. To paraphrase President Lyndon Johnson's great political insight – "They will be inside the tent pissing in."

If the Scots vote "Yes", the circumstances of the divorce will inevitably disappoint, and they will discover that picking up their own tab in the world will be painful, North Sea oil notwithstanding. As a result, triumphalist anti-English chippiness will be the likely order of the day, constantly inflamed by clever propaganda to shore up the SNP vote.

In Freedom at Midnight, Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre's book about Indian independence in 1947, there is a moving section describing the hopes of some of the ordinary people, as opposed to the already grasping Indian political elite. Many believed that it would bring equality and prosperity for all. One humble but deluded passenger on a Calcutta tram thought that like the Sahibs, who had ruled India for so long, he would be able to wear a dinner jacket.

Independence for Scotland, if it comes, will in the same way disappoint many of its most passionate supporters – some perhaps even deluded enough to believe that it will work wonders on the country's poor record in international football. ·