Six reasons why Gingrich won't win the Republican nomination

NEWT GINGRICH has stunned frontrunner Mitt Romney with a convincing win in the Republican primary in South Carolina. Gingrich benefitted from his strong performance in a debate after his ex-wife had claimed in an earlier interview he had asked her for an “open marriage” when he was having an affair. His angry attack on the “destructive, vicious, negative” media appears to have chimed with South Carolina voters who gave him a 13-point victory over Romney.

Romney will be aware that South Carolina has picked the man who has gone on to be the Republican presidential nominee every time since Ronald Reagan in 1980. But commentators have been highlighting a number of reasons why they believe Gingrich cannot go all the way.

GINGRICH CAN’T BEAT OBAMA
"Almost half of [South Carolina voters] said that electability was the most important factor in deciding their vote, and half of them voted for the one guy near-guaranteed to frighten off all but the most dedicated Republican in November," writes Ana Marie Cox in The Guardian. The reality is that, across all voters, Gingrich is even less popular than the no-hoper Ron Paul. A CBS News poll from last week showed that in a Romney v Obama election, the rivals are tied at 45 per cent apiece. Against Gingrich, Obama would win 50 per cent to 39 per cent and against Paul, Obama is four points ahead.

THE US IS NOT SOUTH CAROLINA
Gingrich won in South Carolina among an electorate, 56 per cent of whom described themselves as Evangelical Christians. Romney, a Mormon, was always likely to struggle here. Florida, where the next primary is held, has a more diverse electorate.

HUBRIS
Gingrich often makes mistakes when he is riding high, writes Dan Balz in the Washington Post. “Call it overconfidence, hubris or whatever, Gingrich has been his own worst enemy in the past.” The BBC’s Mark Mardell makes a similar point, asking if Gingrich “has the discipline not to self-destruct”. He illustrates his point with an anecdote from Gingrich’s victory party, when supporters were kept waiting for 20 minutes and had to listen to a soundtrack twice after the senator had been introduced “with great fanfare”.

REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT DON’T TRUST HIM
Newt Gingrich was forced to resign as Speaker of the House of Representatives in 1998. His own Republicans were threatening a rebellion against him after a disastrous showing in mid-term elections which was put down to Gingrich’s dogged attempts to remove President Clinton from office. He has not become any easier to work with in the intervening 14 years. Last year, his entire senior staff walked out on him because he repeatedly refused to follow their advice. As Richard McGregor writes in the Financial Times, “the Republican establishment… will be horrified, because its members think he is unelectable and tarnished in a general election.

“If Mr Gingrich wins Florida, expect a huge campaign against him, not from the White House, but from within the Republican party itself."

NO MONEY, BAD ORGANISATION
Gingrich’s campaign is poorly funded and badly organised in comparison with Romney's. A particularly egregious example of this came last month when it was announced that Gingrich had failed to collect the 10,000 signatures required to make the ballot for the Virginia primary, despite leading Romney in a poll taken around the same time.

TOO POLITICAL
Despite alienating the Republican establishment (see above) Gingrich is seen as a ‘Washington insider’ who has spent years on Capitol Hill. Romney started on this line of attack in his speech after the South Carolina result, saying: "Our campaign will be about the businesses I've helped to start, not the bills I tried to pass." Although his attack was aimed at Obama, it was clear the true target was Gingrich. “Our party can’t be led to victory by somebody who also has never run a business and never run a state,” he added. ·