Falklands row: war of words - or could it get heavier?

TENSIONS are rising ahead of April's 30th anniversary of Argentina's 1982 war with Britain over the Falkland Islands. Prime Minister David Cameron has warned Argentina that he will never surrender the right of Falkland islanders to decide their own future and accused Buenos Aires of behaving like a colonial power. Cameron's comments follow a series of threatening moves by Argentina, including attempts to block flights to the islands and the introduction of aggressive fishing policies. Most commentators doubt the latest war of words will lead to all-out war, but if the Falklands had oil it might be a different story.

Tory bravado
David Cameron has dramatically raised the diplomatic stakes with accusations of Argentine 'colonialism', says Tim Shipman in the Daily Mail. "The war of words is fresh evidence of the increasing tension between the two countries in the run-up to the 30th anniversary of the invasion of the islands by Argentina".

It's quite a Tory year, says Simon Carr in The Independent. What with the Queen's jubilee, the Olympics and the anniversary of the Falklands war the Prime Minister is "fizzing". We can barely afford a postcard to Argentina, yet the PM was practically saying "we had the ships, we had the men and by jingo we had the money too". Actually, he put it more discretely than that, says Carr, but when Cameron attacked what he called "Argentine colonialism", no one could say "the PM lacks audacity."

Tetchy row gets difficult
The problem is that most Argentineans refuse to recognise Britain's claim to the Falklands, says Deborah Haynes in The Times. The desire of the islands' 3,000 residents to remain a British territory "similarly falls on deaf ears". But the constant threats by Argentina to block Falklands-flagged vessels, cut off air routes to Latin America and intimidate fishing trawlers are met "by irritation and defiance by young and old residents".

A flurry went round Westminster after the Prime Minister attacked Argentina, blogs Gary Gibbon for Channel 4. Ministry of Defence sources have told Tory MPs worried about the islands that the Argentines "can probably no longer easily mount a full-scale invasion and wouldn’t have the appetite for that".

Yet Whitehall fears a stunt of some kind in which Argentine forces plant a flag, say, on British territory, or maybe claim an outpost, says Gibbon. This would raise tensions and turn "a tetchy rumbling row into something much trickier and more demanding".

Oil would change things
It is becoming a familiar ritual, says The Economist. Each time a significant anniversary of Argentina's 1982 war with Britain looms, "its government starts rattling sabres". Argentina has forsworn another attempt to seize the islands by force, and in any case, lacks the military means.

But the recent discovery of oil deposits in Falkland's waters might change things, says The Economist. If oil starts to flow, Argentina might seek regional support for an economic blockade.

Given that many Latin American governments are "left-of-centre, strongly nationalist and increasingly confident of their growing clout in the world", they might get it. "British diplomats doubt that the region will offer more than rhetorical support to Argentina's claims. That looks complacent." ·