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The world is on tenterhooks after Kim's death – but why?
Anxiety over his designated successor, North Korea's nuclear programme and links with Iran
THE DEATH at the age of 69 of Kim Jong-il, the ruler of North Korea for the last 17 years, has left a power vacuum at the top of the hermit state. With its massive armed forces and nuclear weapons, the prospect of an internal struggle for control of the country is being greeted with concern in democratic nations across Asia and the world, who will be hoping strong leadership soon emerges.
Who will take over from Kim Jong-il?
According to the New York Times, "state media in Pyongyang [have already] referred to Kim Jong-un as 'the great successor'"and the North Korean news agency KCNA urged citizens to "faithfully revere him". Kim Jong-un (above), who is believed to be 27 years old, had been groomed in recent years as the health of his father - who himself took over from his father, Kim il-Sung - began to deteriorate. In October 2010 Kim Jong-un was promoted to the rank of four-star general and named vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Could anyone stand in Kim Jong-un's way?
Kim Jong-il had two other sons, Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-chol, neither of whom are likely to emerge as challengers. The eldest, Jong-nam, is a chubby playboy who prefers to spend his time in four-star hotels, while little is known of middle child Jong-chol. However, The Guardian reports there are fears that "Jong-un's succession could meet with resistance from the upper ranks of the powerful Korean People's Army". With more than a million people in uniform, the armed forces could have a pivotal say in the future leadership of North Korea.
Will the military launch a coup against Kim Jong-un?
"Chances that the North Korean military is attempting a coup are very low, because North Korea has called itself a nation sharing a common destiny, Kim Jong-un," Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies in Seoul, told the Guardian. Yang believes that the new leader will rule as more of a figurehead for the near future, with the levers of power actually being pulled by "influential members of the ruling party".
What path will North Korea take next?
Setting what could happen in North Korea, The Times plays out a situation where Kim Jong-un is a reforming leader. He could "take the opportunity to bring about economic – but not necessarily political – reform. Taking their cue from China, [he could] relax markets, permit private ownership and encourage foreign investment, presenting it as the dying wish of Kim Jong Il." However, "after so many years of dogma and repression, the strategy is extremely risky and will likely be accompanied by growing dissent and its suppression."
Will North Korea remain hostile to South Korea?
Tensions have already been raised in the region since the news broke, with South Korea putting its military on high alert for cross-border attacks. The Daily Telegraph reports that Jong-il's death is causing "equally grave concern among Pyongyang’s neighbours and in Washington" as foreign governments wait to see which way the new regime jumps. Kim Jong-il kept his neighbours in a state of permanent confusion with his mind games, "which saw on one hand overtures towards de-nuclearisation negotiations, and on the other random torpedoing of submarines and artillery bombardments of the South". The younger Kim could look to make a name for himself by launching a "symbolic" attack on the South. Already there have been unconfirmed reports that a missile was fired into the south earlier today.
What will happen to North Korea's nuclear programme?
Little is known about just how far advanced North Korea's nuclear weapons programme is. In 2006 the regime conducted a weapons test that was widely questioned at the time, but a subsequent test in 2009 was also detected, and the country is believed to have up to eight nuclear weapons. North Korea has also been active in exporting this technology to other rogue states - The Sunday Times reported this weekend that North Koreans may have been working at an Iranian factory developing weapons there.
"The reason people are watching closely is not because we expect the North to strike out, it's because events within North Korea could have unsettling ramifications," said Rod Lyon, a Korea expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra told Reuters. "If there's a contested succession, it means there's a struggle over things like who controls North Korea's plutonium, not just who controls North Korea's army." ·
